Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released the latest Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics report, analyzing recent market stress across digital assets as investors reassess expectations for United States monetary policy.

Key findings include:

• Broad crypto market selloff alongside global risk assets

• Sharp rise in short-term implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ether

• Limited response in longer-dated volatility despite steep price declines

• Muted derivatives participation and subdued trading volumes

The report shows that cryptocurrencies have been caught in a wider selloff across global markets, driven by a rapid repricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and renewed strength in the US dollar. The move erased roughly 4.7 percent of total crypto market capitalization in 24 hours, with losses concentrated among major tokens.

Bitcoin fell to around $81,000, placing it more than 30 percent below its Oct. 6, 2025 high of $126,100, while Ether even dipped below $2,700, dropping well below the $3,000 psychological level. On a year-to-date basis, Bitcoin and Ether are down more than 5 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

That selloff translated into a sharp increase in short-term options implied volatility. One-week at-the-money implied volatility climbed to about 46 percent for Bitcoin and roughly 58 percent for Ether. However, longer-dated volatility did not rise as aggressively, suggesting that traders are primarily pricing in elevated near-term uncertainty rather than a prolonged period of market stress.

Derivatives market participation remains subdued. Open interest in perpetual futures contracts has not fallen sharply alongside spot prices and remains well below levels recorded ahead of the October 2025 liquidation event. Daily trading volumes in perpetual contracts are also significantly lower than those seen during the first three quarters of 2025, indicating continued caution among market participants.

“Cryptos have been caught up in the selloff across global assets, as markets aggressively reprice the Fed policy outlook under a presumably less-dovish Fed Chair,” said Han Tan, Chief market analyst at Bybit Learn. “With US-listed Bitcoin ETFs posting three straight months of net outflows, traders will be keeping a wary eye on the $80,000 level. A sustained break below that psychologically important line may extend Bitcoin’s slump into the mid-$70,000 region, revisiting levels not seen since the aftermath of Liberation Day.”

The report also notes that recent Federal Open Market Committee communications had little impact on longer-term volatility expectations. Despite a slightly hawkish tone and an emphasis on a wait-and-see approach, implied volatility across longer tenors for both Bitcoin and Ether has continued to trend lower since peaking in late 2025.

Overall, the analysis suggests that while short-term volatility has intensified, the absence of a sustained rise in longer-dated volatility and trading activity reflects a market environment marked by restrained participation and cautious positioning. The full Bybit x Block Scholes report is available for download. 

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