Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (May 14, 2025): BTC volatility remains weak relative to ETH

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

In the past week, cryptocurrencies have surged as optimism grows that the US-China trade war may be easing. Following two days of talks, the US announced a 90-day tariff reduction on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. ETH has been the biggest winner among the top 10 tokens, rising 40% in a week, though this has led to significant changes in implied volatility. BTC regained $100K for the first time since early February, with positive bias in OTM call skews, but its volatility market remains weak compared to ETH.

Please check out the report’s highlights.



[Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (May 14, 2025)]<https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DggKuPZhjqUSpGTMl44XGtr4iwaQweig/view?usp=sharing>



Perp reaches recent high

Open interest for ETH surged by $900M over the past week, coinciding with a 40% rise in its spot price. This increase followed US-China trade negotiations, leading to a temporary 30% tariff reduction on Chinese goods. On May 12, 2025, after US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent confirmed the agreement, open interest and perpetual trading volumes hit monthly highs of $9B and $23B, respectively. While open interest has stabilized, trading volumes declined after peaking during a brief pause in the crypto rally between May 11 and 12, 2025.

BTC volatility smiles suggest risk-on sentiment

Despite low short-term volatility expectations, BTC's short-tenor smiles indicate a continued risk-on sentiment, with a 5% skew toward out-of-the-money calls. Early in the week, put option volume surpassed $200M, outpacing $140M for calls, while open interest remains higher for puts than calls.

ETH derivatives suggest more upside

ETH has outperformed BTC for the second consecutive week, achieving a remarkable 59% return over the past month. This rally came with volatility: ETH's front-end volatility briefly doubled BTC’s 7-day tenor, leading to an inverted term structure. By Monday, ETH had pulled back some gains, causing front-end volatility to drop swiftly, a faster resolution than seen in previous inversions.

However, another rise in spot price toward $2.6K reignited volatility expectations. Open interest and options trading for ETH remain skewed toward calls, with volumes exceeding $150M on May 13, 2025, coinciding with a second price surge after a brief retreat on May 12, 2025.



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