3 Assets to Watch: March 30 - April 3

Markets are still wary of a further escalation in the ongoing Middle East conflict, though risk assets are edging higher on this Monday, March 30th:

• Brent Crude (Bybit: UKOUSD): +2.8% as the Strait of Hormuz remains practically shut

• Gold (XAUUSD+): +0.8%, keeping its head above the $4500 level

• Bybit's SP500 - which tracks the benchmark S&P 500: +0.2%, though still trading around its lowest levels since Aug/Sept 2025

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): +1% after finding support around the psychologically-important $65,000 level



Assets & Events Watchlist:



For this week, these 3 major assets could see big moves amid major events that could trigger further volatility, beyond the ongoing Iran war:



1) Can Nikkei225 hang on to year-to-date gains?



Before the Iran war began, the Nikkei225 had a year-to-date gain of over 19%.

At the time of writing, the Nikkei225's gains so far in 2026 have been whittled down to just 3%.

Stock index traders, besides the ongoing Middle East conflict, keep an eye on these major events this week: 

• Tuesday, March 31: Japan February jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production; Tokyo March consumer price index (CPI) - which measures headline inflation - Foreast: Ccore CPI to ease from 2.5% down to 2.3%



NOTE: Nikkei 225 tends to go in the opposite direction (inverse relationship) as the Japanese Yen. 

On Monday, March 30th:

• Nikkei225 index ended its cash session lower by 2.8%

• Yen climbed 0.4% against the Dollar, making JPY the best performing G10 currency vs. the USD for the day  



POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

• UPSIDE: Nikkei225 may resurface above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) once more on a weaker JPY along with an improvement in risk appetite across global financial markets, perhaps by signs of de-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

• DOWNSIDE: Nikkei225 may be dragged down to its lowest levels since November 2025, wiping out its year-to-date gains and testing its 200-day SMA once more for critical support, on a stronger JPY along with a bigger dent to risk appetite across global financial markets, should Middle East tensions spike further.



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2) EURUSD+ to hit 10-month low?



Key Events:

• Tuesday, March 31st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI). 

The bloc's headline inflation, measured from a year ago (year-on-year) is forecasted to spike to 2.6% from 1.9% in February.

• Friday, April 3: US February nonfarm payrolls (NFP) - US monthly jobs report

Here's what economists are expecting out of the jobs market in the world's biggest economy: 60,000 new jobs added in February (an improvement from the 92k jobs lost in January); US jobless rate remained stable at 4.4%.

Bloomberg FX model's forecasted (75% chance) EURUSD trading range this week: 1.1344 - 1.1660



POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

• UPSIDE: EURUSD+ might reach the 1.1660 upside target/200-day SMA resistance on higher-than-expected Eurozone CPI figures that force the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates, along with a weaker USD on signs of de-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

NOTE: Markets fully expect the ECB to hike its rates THREE times (75-basis points total) by end-2026.

• DOWNSIDE: EURUSD+ might reach the 1.13440 downside target - which would mark its lowest levels since June 2025 - on lower-than-expected Eurozone CPI figures along with a stronger USD should geopolitical tensions escalate further.



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3) TRON (TRXUSDT) to hit 6-month high?



• TRON is the 8th biggest crypto by market cap, total value more than US$ 30.5 billion

• Of the 10 biggest cryptos (excluding stablecoins), TRON is the only one with a year-to-date gain +13.8%.

At the time of writing, TRON is trading at a 5-month high!



POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

• UPSIDE: If TRON can secure a daily close above the 0.3250 level, then bulls should be enticed to push prices even higher to 0.3350.

• DOWNSIDE: Should traders be enticed to take profits, that may see TRON revisit the 0.3130 level, though a rapid selloff may call upon its 200-day SMA for critical support.



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