3 Assets to Watch (Sept 21-25): Will Trump-Xi Summit further boost Chinese yuan, HKTECH index, and Bitcoin?

• Thur, Sept 24: Presidents Trump and Xi set to meet in Washington - first time since 2023

• 5 Key Themes: Trade truce extension? Tariff cuts? More trade for rare earth minerals? AI dialogue? EVs/tech watch

• Bloomberg FX model: USDCNH has 93% chance of trading between 6.660 - 6.720 this week (Chinese Yuan is already Asia's 2nd biggest gainer vs. US dollar so far in 2026)

• Summit outcomes may send HKTECH index either to 50-day SMA resistance or re-test 4,245 support

• Bitcoin could re-test 100-week SMA resistance, or support around $75k - depending on pre- and post-summit risk sentiment.



Markets head into this week with one eye firmly on the Trump-Xi summit.



On Thursday, September 24th, the presidents of the world's 2 biggest economies are set for their first face-to-face meeting in Washington since 2023.

This is the most consequential US-China meeting in years - and the timing is critical.

The Trump-Xi Summit: Why It Matters for Markets



Here's what's on the table:

• 1-year trade truce extended? Current truce set to expire in November 2026.

• Tariff cuts on ~$30B of goods - including US LNG (a potential $6B/year trade revival) and agricultural products. China is reportedly over halfway to its pledge to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans this year.

• AI cooperation?: A formal US-China AI dialogue has reportedly already been agreed in principle, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also citing prospects for a next round of AI-focused talks in November.

• Rare earth minerals: These are crucial for semiconductors, memory chips, and other EV and AI hardware. China controls about 70% of global rare earth mining, and its exports of rare earth magnets to the US fell to 512 tons - a 21% drop compared to July 2026.

• EVs and tech: BYD is reportedly being considered for Xi's CEO business delegation — but Trump has already denied BYD access to the US market.

The risk: Tensions have actually ramped up since the two leaders last met in May.

A breakdown — or even a vague, non-committal communiqué — could quickly reverse the cautious optimism priced into global markets right now.



Already at the start of the week (Monday, Sept 21), pre-summit talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday were described as:

• "very successful" by Bessent

• "good" atmosphere - by He, China's top trade negotiator

with both sides agreeing to set up a formal US-China AI dialogue.



With that context in mind, we distill the week's major event into 3 assets to watch that could present your next trading opportunity:



1) USDCNH+ - Will the Chinese yuan climb higher post-summit?



The Chinese yuan (CNH) has strengthened 4.2% year-to-date (ytd), making it Asia's 2nd-biggest gainer against the US dollar so far in 2026.

^{NOTE: 1st place = South Korean won; +4.9% vs. USD ytd}

Leading up to the Trump-Xi summit, CNH is now at its strongest level vs. the US dollar (USD/CNH at its lowest) since mid-2022, now trading below the psychologically-important 6.70 price.

Here's why:

China's central bank, the PBOC, has been the driving force: it strengthened its daily yuan fixing for 9 consecutive sessions heading into this week - the longest such streak since November 2023.

This is widely seen as a deliberate signal to Washington ahead of the summit: Beijing is not weaponising its currency.

101 on USDCNH:

• USD/CNH is the offshore yuan exchange rate - the version of the Chinese currency that trades freely outside mainland China (mainly in Hong Kong).

• A lower USDCNH number means the yuan is stronger vs. the dollar and/or the dollar is weaker vs. yuan

• A higher USDCNH price means the yuan is weaker vs. the dollar and/or dollar is stronger vs. yuan.

• The PBOC sets a daily "fixing" rate that anchors where the yuan can trade - when it sets the fixing lower, it signals a preference for a stronger yuan.

Trade USDCNH+ now

USDCNH+ - Potential Price Targets this week:

According to Bloomberg's FX model, USDCNH has a 93% chance of trading within the 6.660 - 6.72 range this week.

• UPSIDE: USDCNH could snap back towards the 6.720 area if the summit produces only vague language with no concrete commitments.

• DOWNSIDE: USDCNH could fall further to the 6.660 region if Trump and Xi announce a concrete deal - tariff cuts, trade truce extension, AI concessions, and/or LNG/agriculture agreements





2) Hang Seng TECH Index (HKTECH) to embark on epic rebound?



Of the major Asian stock indices available to trade within the Bybit universe ...

The Hang Seng Tech Index (HKTECH) is the one most directly in the crosshairs of the Trump-Xi summit.

This index's 30 constituents read like a who's who of US-China trade and tech war flashpoints: Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, Baidu, JD.com, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, SMIC, Lenovo, Kuaishou, SenseTime, Horizon Robotics - companies whose fortunes are tied directly to tariffs, tech export controls, and the broader state of US-China relations.

Although this tech-heavy index is, just as it did back in late-June 2026, rebounding off the 4245 region once more - a tentative sign that markets are pricing in some optimism ahead of the summit - the index remains 19.8% lower on a year-to-date basis.

Key Themes to Watch

• Tariff relief = re-rating: Any reduction in tariffs on Chinese tech inputs or consumer goods could directly lift margins for HKTECH names.

• AI deal = sentiment boost: A formal US-China AI dialogue - already reportedly agreed in principle - could ease fears of a full tech decoupling and lift sentiment across the index's AI-exposed names.

• EV watch: BYD is reportedly in Xi's CEO entourage. Any signal on EV tariffs - or Trump's continued refusal to allow BYD into the US market - will move the EV names (BYD, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor).

Over the next 12 months, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg still predict that the HSTECH Index can rebound by 46.4%!

Perhaps such a stellar rebound may find its catalyst at this week's Trump-Xi summit.

Trade HKTECH now

HKTECH index - Potential Price Targets this week:



• UPSIDE: HKTECH could test resistance around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) if the summit delivers progress on concrete tariff cuts, a trade truce extension, AI and rare earth agreements.

• DOWNSIDE: HKTECH could give back last week's gains and retest 4,245 for a 3rd time in the past 4 months if the summit disappoints.





3) Bitcoin to meet 100-week SMA resistance?



Although Bitcoin has little to no direct link to the highly-anticipated summit between Trump and Xi, it has been a standout performer at the start of this week.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 4% today, even briefly breaching the $85k for the first time since late-January 2026.

Here's why:

Risk assets, including stock indexes and cryptos, are drawing comfort from falling oil prices.

At the time of writing, Brent and WTI are each about -3% respectively for the day.

Falling oil prices --> less upward pressures on global inflation --> Fed may not have to hike rates as much -->

Risk assets generally move higher at the thought of US interest rates not rising much.

Furthermore:

• ETF inflows have returned: US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted almost US$ 600 million over Thursday and Friday (Sept 17-18) of last week, fully reversing earlier outflows.

• SEC's tokenized-stocks push: the SEC is cheering crypto sentiment pushing to introduce tokenized-stock products - a sign of growing regulatory acceptance of crypto in mainstream finance, despite last week's Clarity Act failure.



Trade BTC perps now

Bitcoin - Potential Price Targets this week:



• UPSIDE: A daily close above $85k, along with further risk-on sentiment this week, could see Bitcoin retesting its 100-week simple moving average (SMA) for resistance, with the $90k level also potentially offering psychological resistance.

• DOWNSIDE: If Bitcoin bulls fail to conquer immediate resistance around $85k, a dent to risk-taking appetite could see BTC quickly falter back to re-test support around the $75k region - which held firm last week.





DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.