AI Summary
Show More
Quickly grasp the article's content and gauge market sentiment in just 30 seconds!
Shein may see tepid debut on Sept 1st; day-1 "pop" only if it follows trend set by 2026's big-name IPOs
Dell forecasted to move 9.8% up/down after earnings release (after US markets close Tue, Sept 1)
USDCAD+ forecasted trading range: 1.38 - 1.40; awaits Bank of Canada rate decision (Wed) and US jobs report (Fri)
In recent weeks, traders and investors worldwide have been fixated on concerns surrounding the:
US fiscal outlook (government income vs. spending)
timing of the next Fed rate hike (58% chance in Sept).
The push-and-pull forces between US fiscal and monetary policies have rocked US Treasury yields, also re-awakening the so-called "debasement trade" - which boosted Bitcoin and Gold.
READ MORE (published Aug 21st): Here's why Bitcoin and Gold are soaring
Amid such a backdrop, there are still other major market events (and potential trading opportunities) to keep an eye on.
This week, watch these 3 assets:
Shein is a fast-fashion company, and a household name especially among Gen-Z shoppers.
This 14-year-old company, founded in China and now headquartered in Singapore, is set to make its market debut in Hong Kong on Tuesday, Sept 1st.
Shein stocks may climb on September 1st, if market conditions allow them to follow the trend of soaring on day 1, as experienced by recent big-name IPOs:
Company | Market | IPO date | Day 1 close vs. IPO price | Returns since IPO |
Shanghai (STAR) | Aug 19, 2026 | 462% | 271% | |
CXMT | Shanghai (STAR) | Jul 27, 2026 | 466% | 581% |
NYSE | Jul 10, 2026 | 13% | 8% | |
SpaceX | Nasdaq | Jun 12, 2026 | 19% | 5% |
NOTE: Above figures accurate as of close Friday, August 28th, 2026
However, these 3 factors suggest a lacklustre debut for Shein's long-awaited IPO:
Recent IPOs in Hong Kong have mostly seen a decline on day 1
Company | IPO date | Day-1 close vs. IPO price | Returns since IPO |
Ingenic Semiconductor (3223 HK) | Aug 26, 2026 | -5% | 1% |
NASN Intelligent Tech (2261 HK) | Aug 7, 2026 | 64% | 35% |
Zhongji Innolight (3308 HK) | Jul 30, 2026 | -2% | 5% |
Nexchip Semiconductor (2249 HK) | Jul 13, 2026 | -7% | -10% |
Befar Group (6745 HK) | Jul 10, 2026 | -19% | -7% |
Mid-range pricing suggests demand solid, but not euphoric
Priced at HK$ 48.56 each, that's just about the mid-way point of the previously touted HK$47.60 - HK$49.50 per share range that was marketed for Shein's initial public offering (IPO).
The apparent lack of hype/demand to price Shein's shares at the top of the range may lead to lacklustre demand when they're made available in the public sphere.
Markets aware of Shein's slowing growth
After threatening to upend the world of fashion retailers, Shein's light on the global stage has dimmed as it faces stiff competition from the likes of Temu, H&M, and Zara.
Shein posted a loss of US$ 99 million in Q1 2026, while this year's revenue is forecasted to grow at its slowest pace in 4 years.
Even Shein's founder and CEO, Sky Xu, has publicly acknowledged Shein's headwinds - something that may weigh down its stock performance over the near term.
More importantly …
Bybit clients can already get early access to Shein's share performance via perpetual contracts.
Bybit's SHEINUSDT Pre-Market Perpetual lets eligible users go:
"long" (tap “Buy” button first - in hopes of prices rising), or
"short" (tap “Sell” button first - in hopes that prices will fall)
… before public trading begins, without having to purchase Shein shares outright through a brokerage account.
In other words, you can already express your pre-IPO views now - whether Shein's stock will actually rise or fall on day 1, and beyond.
READ MORE: How to trade SHEINUSDT on Bybit - Shein Pre-IPO Perpetuals guide
This US$ 294.8 billion dollar tech giant (Dell's market cap as of Aug 28th US market close) has been one of the biggest stock market winners of 2026.
Dell stocks have risen 262.4% so far in 2026, riding the wave of AI spending.
Now comes the moment of truth:
Dell reports its Q2 FY2027 results on Tuesday, September 1, after the US market closes.
AI server demand: Dell's rival, Lenovo, recently reported its AI server pipeline surged 157% quarter-over-quarter to $54 billion - a strong signal for Dell's own server business.
The bar is high: Dell beat last quarter's EPS estimate by 65%. Analysts expect another beat, but Morgan Stanley has flagged that buyside expectations are elevated, making this one of the tougher earnings setups in the sector.
Tariff risk: The Trump administration is reportedly considering semiconductor tariffs that could extend to products containing chips — including laptops and servers. Watch for any commentary on pricing and margins.
Options markets now predict that Dell could move 9.8% up/down once Dell unveils its latest earnings results and outlook.
UPSIDE: A stronger-than-expected earnings outlook that keeps fuelling the AI trade may send Dell stocks to the $497.22 mark - close to its record high (intraday prices) of $514.49.
DOWNSIDE: Weaker-than-expected Q2 results and/or an earnings outlook that misses market expectations could drag this stock down to $408.46, assuming the 9.8% forecasted move materializes to the downside.
NOTES:
A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its interest rates moving up; the currency tends to weaken at the thought of rate cuts.
USDCAD+ goes up when the US dollar strengthens against the Canadian Dollar, and/or CAD weakens against the US dollar, and vice versa.
Last week, USDCAD climbed over 1% to mark its biggest weekly gain in 2 months (Canadian dollar weakened 1.05% vs. US dollar), as US-Canada trade talks collapsed just before its deadline on midnight, August 22nd.
The revival of US-Canada trade tensions casts a cloud over 2 major events for USDCAD+ traders this week:
Wed, Sep 2: Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Although the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% this week ...
Markets still predict a 64% chance for one BoC rate hike by-end-2026.
The bigger question is what the BoC signals about the path ahead.
Friday, Sep 4: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP a.k.a. US jobs report)
Economists predict that the world's biggest economy added 55,000 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
The health of the US jobs market greatly influences the likelihood of whether the Federal Reserve (a.k.a. the Fed a.k.a. the world's most influential central bank) can raise interest rates this year.
Broadly, this means:
- Fed hikes rates to "destroy" some demand (i.e. incur some job losses) when US inflation is running hot.
- Fed lowers rates to boost job creation when US inflation is running below its 2% target.
Looking at the charts, USDCAD+ has been sandwiched between its 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) in recent sessions - awaiting a breakout either way.
This week's major events - the BoC decision and the US NFP report - could act as the catalyst for such a breakout.
Bloomberg's FX model predicts an 81% chance that USDCAD will trade between 1.3800 - 1.4000 this week.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: USDCAD+ could rise and touch 1.400 (US dollar strengthens vs. Canadian dollar) if the BoC sounds apprehensive about raising interest rates, especially if US-Canada trade tensions worsen, and/or the US jobs data come in better-than-expected and allows the Fed to hike US interest rates.
DOWNSIDE: USDCAD+ may fall to 1.3800 (Canadian dollar strengthens vs. US dollar) if the BoC sounds confident it can raise interest rates in the months ahead, and/or the US jobs market weakens to discourage the Fed from raising US interest rates.
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.