Forecasts: US jobs report (NFP) - Friday, October 2. Here's how BTC, gold, SP500 etc. may react.

• Monthly US jobs report usually due first Friday of every month; can move trillions of $ across global assets

• US September nonfarm payrolls (NFP) due @ 12:30PM UTC Friday, October 2nd

• Economists predict 85k new jobs added in Sept, ~half of 162k Aug headline NFP

• US unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1% last month

• Scroll to bottom to see Bloomberg model forecasts for post-NFP reactions for 14 major assets, including BTC, Gold, SP500, EURUSD, and more.



The next installment of the US jobs report is due tomorrow - Friday, October 2nd.



The monthly nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data out of the world's biggest economy can move trillions of dollars across global financial markets!



Why is the US jobs report so important?



1) US consumers drive US economic growth

The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.



2) US jobs report influences Fed rate decisions

The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the world's most influential central bank and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

• "Maximum employment" (jobs growth)

• "Stable prices" (inflation target of 2%)

Typically, the Fed either:

• lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation, OR

• raises its benchmark interest rates to dampen jobs growth so it subdues inflation

A hot US jobs market (a lot of hiring) may also lead to inflation staying elevated.

i.e. more people with jobs --> more money that can be spent in an economy --> businesses have more ability to raise their selling prices --> inflation



Will the Fed hike US interest rates again this year?



Recall that the Fed already hiked rates back on September 16th by 25 basis points (25bps) - its first rate hike since 2023.

At the time of writing, markets only predict about a 1-in-3 chance (37% odds) that the Fed will hike again later this month (October 2026).

However, markets fully expect another 25-bps rate hike before 2026 comes to an end, with an 85% chance of 4 more rate hikes (excluding the Sept 2026 rate hike) over the next 12 months - by October 2027.

Why do such shifting expectations matter for markets?

• The thought of US interest rates going up tends to boost the US dollar, while weighing down gold, stocks, and crypto.

• Conversely, the thought of US interest rates not moving up as fast may soften the US dollar, while boosting (or at least support) gold, stocks, and crypto.



NFP forecasts by economists

Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

• Headline NFP number: 85,000 new jobs added in September

If so, 85k new jobs added would only be about half of the blockbuster 162k NFP figure reported for August.

• Unemployment rate: 4.1%

If so, 4.1% would match August's jobless rate.



Potential market scenarios

• Another blockbuster US jobs report that paves the way for Fed rate hikes in 2026/2027 could drag down risk assets such as US stock indices and cryptos, while boosting the US dollar.



• If the US jobs market remains resilient, or at least not suffering an unexpected deterioration, it may bolster major risk assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30) and cryptos, while keeping the US dollar in demand.



• An unexpected rapid deterioration in US hiring that dilutes bets for Fed rate hikes in 2026/2027 could translate into a weaker dollar, likely boosting US dollar-denominated assets e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD+) and Silver (XAGUSD), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+ etc.).



Ask Bybit AI: How would the US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) on Friday, October 2nd impact gold, EURUSD, S&P 500, and Bitcoin prices?



How did NFP impact major assets last time?



After the previous US jobs report was released on Friday, September 4th:

(Recall: The Aug headline NFP figure was a mind-blowing 162k - far exceeding market forecasts of 55k)



Forecasts: How might major assets react to this NFP data?



These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 12:30 PM UTC Fri, Oct 2nd:

• Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 1% up / 2.9% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 1% up / 4.1% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 0.9% up / 3.4% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 1% up / 3.6% down

• Gold (XAUUSDT): as much as 1.3% up / 1.3% down

• Silver (XAGUSDT): as much as 2.1% up / 2.9% down

• Brent Oil (BZUSDT): as much as 1.4% up / 1% down

• WTI Crude Oil (CLUSDT): as much as 1.6% up / 1.2% down

• Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD): as much as 0.3% up / 0.4% down

• British Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD): as much as 0.3% up / 0.4% down

• US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USDJPY): as much as 0.2% up / 0.36% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.4% up / 1.4% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1% up / 2.1% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.4% up / 0.8% down





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.