Preview: US inflation (CPI) data due Wed, Aug 12. Forecasts for BTC, gold, oil, and more.



• Inflation is widely measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Economists predict headline US CPI will ease slightly to 3.4%

• Inflation data set to inform markets and Fed about prospects of Sept rate hike (51% odds now)

• Higher-than-expected CPI figures should boost US dollar; drag down gold, stocks, indexes, cryptos

• Lower-than-expected CPI figures should weigh down US dollar; boost gold, stocks, indexes, cryptos

• Scroll down for Bloomberg forecasts: CPI reactions for 14 major assets



The monthly US inflation data could rock trillions of dollars across global markets.

It's not just everyday folks who are wary about inflation.

Traders, investors, even central bankers and policymakers obsess about rising prices of goods and services, and its impact on the global economy.

Tomorrow (Wed, Aug 12), the world's biggest economy is set to unveil its latest monthly inflation data.



First, a quick recap to get you up to speed.

Why is the US inflation data so important?

Inflation is widely measured via the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

1) Inflation drives Fed rate decisions

Inflation directly influences what the Federal Reserve a.k.a. The Fed - the world's most influential central bank - does with US interest rates.

When inflation runs hot, the Fed may raise rates, making borrowing more expensive and potentially cooling price gains in stock markets, gold, even cryptos.

2) Market volatility spikes on CPI announcements

The CPI announcements are must-watch events, and can trigger huge prices moves across asset classes - bonds, stocks, FX, gold, even cryptos.

These big moves create rare trading opportunities as markets react sharply to whether inflation comes in higher or lower than expected, and how the CPI figures could influence the Fed's next moves.

3) Inflation trends affect your own spending

Rising inflation affects financial markets, government policies, and even your own budget. Higher petrol prices translate into more money needed to fill up the tank, and perhaps in turn less spending on your daily coffee fix.

Understanding CPI helps you position not just your trades and investments, but even household spending as well.



CPI forecasts by economists



Here's what experts are forecasting for this top-tier economic data release:

• CPI year-on-year (July 2026 vs. July 2025): 3.4%

If so, 3.4% would be slightly lower than June's 3.5% year-on-year advance, with the latter already notably lower than May's 4.2% headline CPI figure = it's highest since 2023.



• CPI month-on-month (July 2026 vs. June 2026): 0.1%

If so, 0.1% growth would mark a turnaround from the month-on-month drop of 0.4% back in June.



• Core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.5%

If so, 2.5% would be slightly lower than June's 2.6% core CPI y/y.



• Core CPI month-on-month: 0.2%

If so, 0.2% would be faster growth than June's 0% (no change) compared to May's core CPI (month-on-month).



In short:

Markets are expected a slight cooling in US inflation - anything else could shock markets!



Potential Near-Term Scenarios



• Higher-than-expected US CPI figures should translate into a stronger US dollar on increasing confidence that the next Fed rate hike will happen in September (currently: 51% odds).

Such prospects should drag down precious metals (Gold - XAUUSDT and Silver - XAGUSDT), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+, AUDUSD+ etc.), stock indices, and even major cryptos.



• Lower-than-expected US CPI figures may boost major assets ranging from US stock indices (SP500 to NAS100) to gold (XAUUSDT). Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.



How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?

These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 12:30 PM UTC Wed, Aug 12:

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): as much as 2.2% up / 0.6% down

• Ethereum (ETHUSDT): as much as 3.5% up / 1.2% down

• Ripple (XRPUSDT): as much as 2.6% up / 1% down

• Solana (SOLUSDT): as much as 4.2% up / 1.3% down

• Gold (XAUUSDT): as much as 1.2% up / 0.4% down

• Silver (XAGUSDT): as much as 1.9% up / 0.8% down

• Brent Oil (BZUSDT perps): as much as 1.3% up / 0.9% down

• WTI Crude Oil (CLUSDT perps): as much as 1.4% up / 0.7% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.1% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.2% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.2% up / 0.3% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.5% up / 0.5% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 0.6% up / 0.6% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.8% up / 0.9% down

US CPI (inflation) vs. NFP (jobs): Which macro data announcement has/had the bigger forecasted price moves?

Compare above-listed figures with Aug 6th forecasts for the recent US jobs report (NFP) released Fri, Aug 7th - which sent Gold prices to a fresh 7-week high!





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.