Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its latest Bybit TradFi Report. The report explores how investors are assessing labor market conditions amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, focusing on how private data is being used to fill the gap left by suspended official statistics.
Key Highlights:
Private Compiled Data: With U.S. labor statistics halted during the government shutdown, private data sources such as Bloomberg’s reconstructed unemployment figures show a modest decline in initial jobless claims, suggesting tentative stabilization.
Continuing Claims: Benefit claims have edged higher to 1.95 million, indicating slower workforce re-entry and highlighting the continued strain on federal employees.
ADP, Job Postings, and Wage Trends: Private-sector employment data and online job postings point to renewed hiring momentum, while wage trends and consumer sentiment offer additional insight into labor market resilience.
The report highlights that market participants have turned to alternative indicators such as Bloomberg’s reconstructed unemployment statistics and ADP’s newly introduced weekly payroll data to gauge labor market health. Bloomberg’s analysis estimates that initial jobless claims fell to around 218,000 for the week ending October 25, down from 231,000 the previous week. While this suggests gradual improvement, gaps in state-level reporting introduce some uncertainty.
Source: FRED
Continuing claims have risen slightly to 1.95 million, signaling that re-entry into the workforce remains slow. Federal employees are disproportionately affected, with unemployment claims under the federal program reaching their highest level since the previous shutdown. Meanwhile, ADP’s private-sector data shows steady job creation, averaging 14,250 new positions per week—a rebound from September’s job losses. Market sentiment points toward stabilization, though persistent benefit claims and limited hiring momentum underline the economy’s fragility.
The full analysis is available in the Bybit TradFi Report.
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