TXN Stock Forecast 2026: Analyst Price Targets

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All forecasts and price targets represent analyst estimates and are subject to change. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

Analyst consensus projects a 2026 price target range of approximately $185 to $250 for Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN), tracked on crypto trading platforms as TXNUSDT, based on estimates from 29 analysts surveyed by MarketBeat as of January 2025. TXNUSDT and TXN refer to the same underlying equity: Texas Instruments Incorporated, the world's largest analog semiconductor company by revenue, founded in 1951 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

This analysis covers the named Wall Street analyst price targets driving that range, the fundamental investment thesis built around TXN's capital expenditure cycle and free cash flow recovery, technical chart levels for traders positioning in TXNUSDT, three structured scenarios for 2026, and the risks that could prevent the bull case from materializing.

What Is TXNUSDT?

TXNUSDT is the ticker for Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) as traded on select crypto and tokenized stock platforms, where the position is priced and settled in USDT rather than US dollars through a traditional brokerage. TXNUSDT tracks TXN's equity price in real time and represents the same underlying asset (Texas Instruments shares), not a separate cryptocurrency, token, or independent financial instrument.

USDT is Tether, the world's largest stablecoin by market capitalization, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. On crypto trading platforms, USDT pairs are the standard denomination for assets that would otherwise be priced in USD on a traditional exchange. Buying TXNUSDT means holding TXN equity, but through a different trading platform and settlement currency than a standard brokerage purchase.

Tokenized stocks are digital representations of real equity positions. A holder of TXNUSDT on a crypto platform typically holds either a token tracking TXN's price through a smart contract, or a claim on actual TXN shares held in custody by the platform provider. Binance discontinued its stock token service in 2021 following regulatory scrutiny; verify current availability on your specific platform before trading. Investors trading TXNUSDT on crypto platforms should be aware that synthetic and tokenized stock positions may carry platform counterparty risk that direct ownership of TXN equity through a traditional brokerage does not.

TXNUSDT / TXN Analyst Price Targets 2026

A 12-month analyst price target is a forward price estimate issued by a sell-side analyst at an investment bank, derived from financial models including discounted cash flow analysis and price-to-earnings multiple comparisons. The table below presents named analyst targets for TXN, each reflecting a distinct institutional view on TXN's 2026 earnings trajectory and valuation. These differ from the algorithmic outputs on sites such as CoinCodex or WalletInvestor, which carry no named analyst attribution. Individual targets also reflect different scenario assumptions, as discussed further in our scenario framework for stock price ranges.

Data as of January 2025. Sources: TXN analyst price targets (MarketBeat), TipRanks. Verify current targets before publication.

The $65 spread between the high and low target reflects genuine disagreement about when TXN's inventory recovery accelerates and whether CapEx normalization delivers the free cash flow rebound the bull case requires. Analysts at the lower end assign a higher probability to a prolonged inventory correction; those at the top model a faster FCF recovery with a valuation re-rating.

Wall Street Consensus Rating for TXN Stock

Based on 29 analysts surveyed by MarketBeat as of January 2025, TXN carries a consensus rating of Moderate Buy, with 8 Strong Buy ratings, 10 Buy ratings, 10 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating. This places the stock in a cautiously positive position as analysts await confirmation of the inventory recovery thesis.

Recent rating activity has been mixed. JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating with a $235 target in January 2025, citing improving order patterns from automotive customers as a positive leading indicator. Bernstein maintained Market Perform in January 2025, citing TXN's premium valuation relative to the pace of earnings recovery as a reason for caution.

According to Harlan Sur at JPMorgan, as of January 2025, TXN's automotive and industrial customer re-ordering patterns signal that inventory digestion is entering its final stages, which should support a meaningful EPS recovery in 2026. Stacy Rasgon at Bernstein countered, as of January 2025, that TXN's forward price-to-earnings multiple remains elevated for a company whose free cash flow is still recovering, and that the stock needs to demonstrate earnings acceleration before warranting a premium.

The consensus rating is a signal among many. It aggregates individual sell-side views and should be weighed alongside the fundamental analysis, technical levels, and scenario framework that follow.

Texas Instruments Fundamental Analysis 2026

TXN's Analog Semiconductor Business and Revenue Model

Texas Instruments generates approximately 75% of its annual revenue from analog semiconductors (chips that manage real-world signals like power, temperature, sound, and pressure, as opposed to digital chips that process binary data). This is a fundamentally different product category from the processors made by Intel, graphics chips from NVIDIA, or memory from Micron. The distinction matters because analog chips serve different customers and follow different demand cycles.

TXN's analog customers are concentrated in two long-cycle end markets: automotive electronics and industrial automation. These sectors make multi-year equipment commitments rather than quarterly consumer purchasing decisions. That slower cycle creates more durable and predictable revenue patterns than the consumer electronics market, which TXN has intentionally reduced its exposure to over the past decade. For 2026, this long-cycle customer base is the foundation of analyst confidence that revenue growth will resume once destocking ends.

Semiconductor Inventory Cycle and Its Impact on 2026 Revenue

The semiconductor inventory cycle is the single variable most affecting TXN's 2026 forecast. The cycle works like a supply chain problem: when chip customers over-order during periods of supply anxiety, they eventually stop placing new orders and work through their excess stock instead. This phase is called destocking. TXN's revenue fell from roughly $18.3 billion in 2022 to approximately $15.6 billion in 2024 because automotive OEMs and industrial manufacturers drew down their chip stockpiles rather than buying new ones.

Analyst 2026 price targets are predicated on this destocking completing in 2024 to 2025, with re-ordering (restocking) accelerating into 2026. Analysts track TXN's "days of inventory" metric as the primary leading indicator. As that figure falls toward TXN's historical norm of 130 to 140 days, the restocking thesis gains credibility. On the Q4 2024 earnings call, Texas Instruments management noted that industrial customer inventory had normalized and that automotive inventory was approaching healthier levels, though the recovery was uneven across product lines. If destocking extends into 2026 beyond current assumptions, consensus EPS estimates would be revised downward.

CapEx Cycle and Free Cash Flow Recovery Thesis

TXN's central 2026 investment thesis rests on the normalization of capital expenditure (CapEx, the money TXN spends to build and equip its manufacturing facilities), which compressed free cash flow significantly from 2021 through 2024.

Between 2021 and 2024, TXN executed the largest capacity investment in its history: new 300mm wafer fabrication plants in Sherman, Texas and Lehi, Utah. Larger-diameter wafers produce more chips per production run and lower the cost per unit, giving TXN a structural cost advantage over smaller competitors. This buildout required CapEx running above $5 billion per year at its peak, well above TXN's historical range of $1.5 to $2 billion annually.

Free cash flow (FCF, the cash a company generates after paying for capital expenditures) is the metric TXN uses to fund its dividend and buyback programs. The elevated CapEx temporarily pushed FCF per share below the annual dividend per share during 2023 and 2024. FCF is distinct from net income: a company can report positive earnings while generating low or negative FCF during heavy investment periods. See the full financial history at Texas Instruments Investor Relations and the Texas Instruments 10-K annual filing (SEC EDGAR).

As CapEx normalizes toward historical levels, FCF per share is projected to recover substantially. If FCF returns to the $6 to $8 per share range that characterized TXN's pre-buildout years, the dividend becomes well-covered again and the market may re-rate the stock upward. Multiple analysts have connected their higher price targets directly to this FCF normalization assumption. The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 provides approximately $52 billion in domestic semiconductor manufacturing incentives; TXN has applied for grants related to its Sherman and Lehi fabs, which would partially offset the CapEx burden if confirmed.

EPS Estimates, Revenue Forecast, and Dividend Sustainability

Analyst consensus projects TXN's non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS, the portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share) to recover meaningfully through 2025 and 2026. Non-GAAP EPS excludes one-time items such as restructuring charges, and it is the metric sell-side analysts use for forecasting. The table below shows the trajectory from 2024 actuals through 2026 estimates.

Verify all figures against current investor.ti.com earnings releases and Yahoo Finance analysis tab before publication.

TXN's most recent quarterly guidance, provided on the Q4 2024 earnings call, projected Q1 2025 revenue of approximately $3.74 to $4.06 billion, signaling gradual sequential improvement.

TXN has grown its dividend for 21 consecutive years as of early 2025, placing it on a path toward the formal Dividend Aristocrat designation (a company that has increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years, per the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index). That track record attracts income-oriented institutional investors who create a partial valuation floor, since breaking the streak would trigger institutional selling.

The sustainability question for 2026 centers on the payout ratio (the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends). During the CapEx peak years, TXN's payout ratio on a free cash flow basis temporarily exceeded 100%. As CapEx normalizes and FCF recovers toward $6 to $8 per share, the payout ratio should return well below 100% of FCF, supporting continued dividend growth. Investors can verify the current consecutive-year count at TXN dividend history.

TXN's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio, which divides the stock's current price by its annual earnings per share) has historically run above analog semiconductor peers. The 2026 forward P/E based on consensus EPS compresses mechanically as earnings recover: at $220 with 2026 consensus EPS of approximately $11.80, the forward P/E would be approximately 18.6x, below TXN's historical trailing multiples and consistent with a moderate premium to the semiconductor group.

Technical Analysis: TXNUSDT Chart Outlook 2026

Data as of January 2025 from TradingView. Verify and update at time of publication.

Data as of January 2025. Verify against current TradingView chart before publication.

A moving average smooths daily price fluctuations by averaging the closing price over a set number of days. The 50-day MA reflects the short-term trend; the 200-day reflects the longer-term direction. TXN's 50-day currently sits below the 200-day, a configuration called a death cross. This is a bearish technical signal indicating that recent price momentum is weaker than the longer-term trend, though moving averages are lagging indicators that confirm past behavior rather than predict future direction.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 suggest a stock may be overbought; readings below 30 suggest it may be oversold. TXN's RSI of approximately 45 sits in neutral territory, with no momentum-driven rally or capitulation event underway at current levels.

Support levels are price points where buying interest has historically emerged. Resistance levels are points where selling pressure has historically increased. The $180 support zone has held on multiple tests in late 2024 and is the key level for TXNUSDT traders managing positions. The $200 level, coinciding with the 200-day MA, is the first resistance bulls need to reclaim for the technical structure to improve.

The current chart picture is cautiously neutral. Price consolidates above $180 support but below the 200-day MA, suggesting traders are waiting for a fundamental catalyst before committing directionally. A break below $180 support would warrant reassessing position sizing.

Bull, Base, and Bear Case Scenarios for TXN / TXNUSDT in 2026

Three scenarios capture the range of outcomes analysts model for TXN's 2026 price, each dependent on different assumptions about inventory recovery timing, CapEx normalization pace, and the macroeconomic environment. For broader context on how scenario frameworks apply to stock forecasts, see our Tesla Stock Price Prediction for 2040: A Beginner's Guide to Scenarios Not Certainties.

Investors should watch three leading indicators to assess which scenario is materializing: TXN's quarterly revenue guidance relative to analyst consensus (a guidance beat signals bull case progress), the days-of-inventory metric on each earnings call (declining toward 130 to 140 days signals destocking completion), and Federal Reserve rate decisions (rate cuts support multiple expansion). These represent conditional outcomes, not predictions.

Key Growth Catalysts for TXNUSDT / TXN in 2026

Four structural catalysts underpin analyst price targets above the current TXN trading level, each tied to observable events investors can track.

Inventory Restocking. The Q4 2024 earnings call confirmed that industrial customer inventory had normalized and automotive inventory was approaching healthier levels. When restocking begins in earnest, TXN's revenue should recover sharply because the deferred orders represent demand that was postponed, not cancelled. The days-of-inventory metric is the number to watch each quarter.

Automotive Semiconductor Demand. Automotive is one of TXN's two largest end markets. Each electric vehicle (EV) requires significantly more analog chips than a traditional combustion vehicle, primarily for power management, battery monitoring, and ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems, features like automatic emergency braking and lane-keeping assist). This structural content-per-vehicle growth means chip demand rises even when production volumes stay flat. Analysts project automotive re-ordering will accelerate through 2026 as the 2023 to 2024 destocking cycle ends, providing a durable revenue stream distinct from volatile consumer electronics.

Industrial Automation and Industry 4.0. Industrial automation is TXN's largest end market, covering factory automation, robotics, energy infrastructure, and building management. Industry 4.0 (the trend of connecting industrial machinery to digital networks and automation systems) drives sustained demand for sensing, power management, and motor control chips. Industrial customers make multi-year procurement commitments, creating durable order visibility once restocking begins. Recovery timing in most analyst 2026 models assumes restocking accelerates in H1 2026.

CHIPS Act Funding. The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 provides approximately $52 billion in domestic semiconductor manufacturing incentives. TXN has applied for grants related to its Sherman and Lehi fabs. Confirmed grants would reduce net CapEx and accelerate the FCF recovery timeline. Separately, domestic manufacturing positions TXN favorably as US-China supply chain tensions continue to influence procurement decisions at large manufacturers. Grant amounts remain subject to approval and performance milestones.

Key Risks to the TXNUSDT Price Forecast in 2026

Three categories of risk could prevent TXN's 2026 bull case from materializing.

Macro Risks

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on TXN's stock through a direct mechanism: when rates rise, bonds offer higher yields, making dividend-paying stocks relatively less attractive to income investors. More precisely, higher rates increase the discount rate used in valuation models, compressing the present value of future earnings and the premium assigned to long-duration dividend streams. TXN's historically elevated P/E multiple makes it more sensitive to this effect than lower-multiple peers.

The anticipated Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle in 2025 to 2026 is a potential tailwind: if rates decline, valuation multiples can expand even before earnings recover, boosting TXN through both earnings growth and multiple expansion. The risk is that inflation proves stickier than expected and rates remain elevated longer than consensus assumes. TXN is listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market and included in the NASDAQ-100; a broad tech-sector selloff driven by macro concerns would affect TXN's price regardless of company-specific performance, though TXN's analog-focused, dividend-paying character makes it less correlated with pure-growth NASDAQ names than many index peers. A recession would reduce capital spending at industrial and automotive customers, directly compressing TXN's order volumes.

Industry Risks

The most direct threat to the 2026 bull case is an extension of the semiconductor inventory correction. If customers work through chip inventories more slowly than analysts project, each additional quarter of delayed recovery triggers downward revisions to both EPS estimates and analyst price targets. Analog Devices (ADI), TXN's largest direct analog semiconductor competitor, and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), a major automotive and industrial chip maker competing with TXN in key end markets, present pricing pressure in overlapping product categories. TXN's scale advantage from 300mm wafer manufacturing (which produces chips at a lower cost per unit than the 200mm fabs used by many competitors) provides a buffer, but prolonged industry overcapacity could erode pricing power. Slower-than-projected EV adoption rates would also reduce the automotive chip demand recovery.

Company-Specific Risks

The 2026 FCF recovery thesis depends on TXN's Sherman and Lehi fabs ramping on schedule. Delays in construction completion or equipment qualification would push FCF normalization into 2027, deferring the valuation re-rating catalyst embedded in high-end analyst targets. A related risk is below-optimal fab utilization: if demand recovery lags capacity addition, margin pressure could persist even as revenue grows. TXN provides quarterly guidance only, with no annual revenue targets issued. A guidance miss is a material stock-moving event, as demonstrated by multiple instances in 2023 and 2024 where guidance cuts drove meaningful single-day price declines.

TXNUSDT vs. Peers: 2026 Analog Semiconductor Comparison

TXN competes directly with three analog semiconductor peers: Analog Devices (ADI), TXN's largest direct analog competitor; NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), a major automotive and industrial chip maker competing with TXN in key end markets; and Microchip Technology (MCHP), a microcontroller and analog chip maker with substantial industrial market overlap. For reference on ADI's presence in tokenized equity markets, see the Analog Devices tokenized stock pricing page. The table below provides 2026 forward estimates for all four companies.

Data as of January 2025. Sources: Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, Bloomberg consensus. Verify before publication.

TXN trades at a moderate discount to ADI on a forward P/E basis (approximately 18.6x versus 22.1x), which is atypical given TXN's historically commanding valuation premium. The discount reflects market uncertainty about the FCF recovery timeline: ADI completed its own CapEx normalization earlier and carries a cleaner near-term earnings trajectory. NXPI trades at a steeper discount to TXN on forward P/E (14.2x), partly because of NXPI's greater automotive revenue concentration and the auto-sector inventory overhang. TXN's dividend yield of approximately 2.7% is the highest among the three analog peers with lower yields, supporting its income-investor base during the FCF compression period. Analyst consensus tilts bullish on TXN relative to MCHP (rated Hold), but ADI and NXPI carry slightly stronger aggregate buy ratings, suggesting the market treats TXN's 2026 FCF recovery as a condition for relative outperformance rather than a certainty.

Is TXNUSDT a Good Investment for 2026?

For Crypto-Native Traders Holding TXNUSDT

If you hold TXNUSDT on a crypto or tokenized stock platform, the analyst consensus and technical picture together suggest a cautiously constructive setup for a 6 to 18 month horizon. Consensus projects approximately 19% upside from the January 2025 price to the average analyst target, but the technical structure (price below the 200-day MA, death cross in effect) indicates the path requires a fundamental catalyst to break resistance. The scenario table above frames the range: the base case produces a mid-$200s price; the bear case, if destocking extends, produces a range of $160 to $185. Use those ranges to calibrate position sizing rather than anchoring to any single number. As noted in the tokenized stocks section, TXNUSDT on a crypto platform carries platform counterparty risk that a direct TXN equity position through a regulated brokerage does not.

For Traditional Equity Investors Evaluating TXN

For investors evaluating TXN within a semiconductor or dividend-growth equity portfolio, the 2026 investment case rests primarily on the FCF recovery thesis, which hinges on two observable milestones: CapEx normalization and inventory cycle completion. The forward P/E of approximately 18.6x based on 2026 consensus EPS is below TXN's historical premium, suggesting the market has partially priced in the FCF compression period. Key quarterly metrics to monitor include revenue guidance versus analyst consensus, FCF per share trajectory (recovery toward $6 per share signals bull case progress), and the days-of-inventory figure on earnings calls. Analyst consensus rates TXN a Moderate Buy based on 29 analysts as of January 2025, with high-conviction bull cases pointing to $245 to $250 if both the CapEx cycle and inventory recovery resolve in 2026.

For Dividend-Growth Investors Monitoring TXN

For income-focused investors monitoring TXN's 21-year consecutive dividend growth trajectory, the central 2026 question is whether FCF per share recovers to levels that comfortably cover the annual dividend and support a further increase. Based on analyst consensus projecting 2026 non-GAAP EPS of approximately $11.80 and improving FCF, the dividend appears sustainable through 2026, though the payout ratio on a free cash flow basis will remain above historical norms until the new fabs reach full production efficiency. TXN management has consistently signaled its commitment to dividend growth across multiple earnings calls, and the company's balance sheet provides capacity to bridge any remaining FCF shortfall. The streak appears intact through 2026 based on current analyst models, conditional on the CapEx normalization proceeding as projected.

Taken together, TXN's 2026 investment case is a recovery play tied to two converging thesis catalysts: inventory restocking and CapEx normalization. Both are supported by analyst consensus, but neither is guaranteed. The risk-reward appears balanced rather than one-sided, with upside tied to confirmation of the recovery and downside tied to its delay.

This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Individual suitability depends on personal risk tolerance, investment objectives, and financial circumstances.

Frequently Asked Questions: TXNUSDT and TXN Stock 2026

What is TXNUSDT?

TXNUSDT is Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) stock traded as a USDT-denominated pair on crypto and tokenized stock platforms. USDT is Tether, a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. TXNUSDT and TXN represent the same underlying asset: Texas Instruments equity. The price moves identically. The difference is the trading platform and settlement currency, not the underlying company. Texas Instruments Incorporated is the world's largest analog semiconductor company by revenue, listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market and founded in 1951.

What is the analyst consensus price target for TXN in 2026?

The consensus average 12-month price target for TXN is approximately $221, based on 29 analyst estimates compiled by MarketBeat as of January 2025. The high target is $250 (BofA Securities) and the low is $185 (BMO Capital). These figures represent analyst projections subject to revision as TXN releases quarterly earnings. Targets will shift materially if the 2026 EPS recovery accelerates ahead of schedule or if the semiconductor inventory correction extends beyond current assumptions.

Is TXN stock a buy, hold, or sell according to analysts?

TXN carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating as of January 2025, based on 29 analysts surveyed by MarketBeat, with 8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 10 Hold, and 1 Sell. The large Hold component reflects analysts who believe the current price already embeds near-term recovery expectations and that the stock needs demonstrated EPS acceleration before warranting a premium multiple. Consensus ratings aggregate individual sell-side views and should not be read as personal financial advice.

What are the biggest risks for Texas Instruments stock in 2026?

Three risk categories could prevent the 2026 bull case from materializing. Macro risks: if the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated longer than expected, TXN's premium P/E multiple could compress even if earnings recover on schedule. Industry risks: if the semiconductor inventory correction extends into 2026, revenue estimates and price targets face downward revision; competition from Analog Devices and NXP Semiconductors adds pricing pressure. Company-specific risks: if TXN's Sherman and Lehi fab ramp timelines are delayed, the free cash flow recovery thesis shifts into 2027, removing the valuation re-rating catalyst that underpins high-end analyst targets.

Will Texas Instruments continue growing its dividend in 2026?

TXN's 21-year consecutive dividend growth streak appears intact through 2026 based on current analyst models projecting meaningful EPS and FCF recovery. The payout ratio on an FCF basis has been elevated during the CapEx cycle, but TXN's balance sheet and management's stated commitment provide support. If CapEx normalization proceeds as projected and the inventory correction resolves, FCF per share should comfortably cover and grow the dividend in 2026. Verify the current consecutive-year count at TXN dividend history.

What is TXN's EPS forecast for 2026?

Analyst consensus projects TXN's non-GAAP EPS at approximately $11.80 in 2026, representing roughly 28% growth from the 2024 trough of approximately $8.00, based on Yahoo Finance consensus estimates as of January 2025. The high estimate is approximately $13.50 and the low is approximately $9.80. EPS estimates are sensitive to inventory recovery timing: if destocking extends, estimates will be revised downward. Non-GAAP EPS excludes restructuring charges and amortization; GAAP EPS would be lower.

Has the semiconductor inventory correction ended?

The inventory correction was in its later stages but had not fully resolved as of early 2025. On the Q4 2024 earnings call, Texas Instruments management reported that industrial customer inventory had normalized and automotive inventory was approaching healthier levels, though the recovery was uneven across product lines. Analysts broadly expect restocking to accelerate through 2025 and gain momentum into 2026. The days-of-inventory metric on TXN's quarterly calls is the most direct signal to monitor.

Who are Texas Instruments' main competitors in the analog semiconductor market?

TXN's three primary analog semiconductor competitors are Analog Devices (ADI), TXN's largest direct analog competitor with significant overlap in industrial and communications markets; NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), a major automotive and industrial chip maker competing in power management and embedded processors; and Microchip Technology (MCHP), a microcontroller and analog chip maker with substantial industrial market overlap. Digital semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA and Intel produce GPUs and CPUs, which are fundamentally different products serving different customers. TXN's 300mm wafer manufacturing scale provides a cost-per-chip advantage over all three analog peers.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. This publication does not hold positions in Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog Devices (ADI), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), or Microchip Technology (MCHP). All analyst price targets, earnings estimates, and consensus ratings cited in this article represent third-party analyst projections and are subject to revision. Past performance of any security does not guarantee future results. Readers should consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented reflects data available as of the date noted; readers should verify current data independently before acting on any information contained herein.