Bitcoin is currently oscillating in the $66,000–$68,000 range, facing short-term pressure mainly due to intensified institutional and whale competition, continuously shrinking spot demand, dominance of derivatives shorts, and on-chain data showing emerging bottom signs, though downside risks remain. Considering macro risk-off sentiment and regulatory uncertainties, it is recommended to focus on the $66,500 support and $67,500 resistance in the short term. If these levels fail, beware of the risk of a pullback towards $60,000. Conservative investors are advised to stay on the sidelines and wait for price and on-chain cost convergence before entering.

Recently, large asset management institutions have continued to transfer over 1,300 BTC into exchange wallets, while in the past 30 days, nearly 94,000 BTC have been accumulated through ETFs and other strategies. However, overall spot market demand remains weak, with net supply still in outflow. Mid-tier holders and whales have shifted from buyers to net sellers, offloading nearly 188,000 BTC over the past year. In the absence of new external buyers, short-term pressure increases, and the growing exchange balances raise concerns of increased sell pressure.

BlackRock transferred 1,360 BTC (approximately $90.28 million) and 15,103 ETH (approximately $30.82 million) to Coinbase today, totaling about $121 million, according to Onchain Lens.

BlackRock transferred 1,360 BTC and 15,103 ETH to Coinbase.

CryptoQuant reports that despite ongoing institutional buying, Bitcoin spot demand remains in deep contraction, with a 30-day apparent demand decrease of about 63,000 BTC as of late March, indicating strong selling pressure from retail and other participants. Whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have become net distributors, reducing holdings by 188,000 BTC over the past year. If macro risks ease, especially a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin could rebound to $71,500-$81,200.

CryptoQuant: If macro risks ease, Bitcoin may rebound to $71,500 to $81,200.

Recent data from CryptoQuant shows that despite institutional buying of nearly 94,000 BTC via ETFs and strategies in the past 30 days, overall market demand remains weak with a net sell-off of 63,000 BTC. Large holders have shifted from buyers to heavy sellers, and mid-level holders are slowing accumulation. Bitcoin's spot price premium has narrowed from 21%, signaling no true bottom yet. Market sentiment is extremely fearful, and the current 47% correction relies heavily on ETF support amid continued weak demand.

Analysis: Weak Bitcoin demand, short-term rebound depends on ETF support

The Bitcoin derivatives market is currently dominated by bears, with the 30-day open interest index dropping from positive territory to around -3.1, indicating persistent short accumulation and increased volatility due to forced long liquidations. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that coins held at a profit and those held at a loss are both nearing typical bear market bottom levels; the convergence of long- and short-term cost bases also signals late-stage bear market characteristics. The long-term valuation indicator, CVDD, provides a downside safety margin around $45,500, suggesting that even with deeper corrections, the downside scope may remain within 30%.

Analyst Murphy observed a crossover between the average on-chain turnover costs of BTC held for 1-2 years and 1-3 months, signaling BTC's official entry into the latter half of the bear market. Additionally, the long-term valuation indicator CVDD, proposed by analyst Willy Woo, reached $45,410, suggesting BTC's price is unlikely to fall below approximately $45,500, indicating a potential maximum decline of about 30%, likely less in reality.

Analysis: BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market, and even the final drop is unlikely to break below $45,500.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost reports Bitcoin's profitable supply is about 11.2 million and loss supply about 8.2 million, nearing typical bear market levels, suggesting the market may be undervalued and a bottom approaching. However, Bitrue's Andri Fauzan Adziima argues this indicates rising market pressure, not immediate undervaluation, as deeper losses are needed for a true bottom. Analyst Timothy Peterson notes a strong dollar and weak yuan limit Bitcoin's rebound, with dollar strength expected to ease only by late 2026 or 2027.

Analyst: Bitcoin profit and loss supply approaching "real bear market" levels

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr reports that Bitcoin's derivatives market is dominated by short positions, with the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin position index falling from +3.0 to -3.1 since mid-March, reflecting growing short accumulation and a weakening market structure. Liquidation oscillation has risen to 18.6%, indicating ongoing forced liquidations of long positions. The market shows no signs of a bullish reversal, suggesting continued downside risk and advising risk avoidance.

Analyst: Bitcoin derivatives market dominated by shorts, bulls continue to face liquidation pressure.

Last week, escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices up nearly 17% to above $100, while rising U.S. Treasury yields strengthened the dollar and heightened risk-aversion, weighing on risk assets. On the other hand, U.S. manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.7, historically showing a positive correlation with the onset of several crypto bull runs. However, rising regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrencies has also injected additional uncertainty into the short-term market. Market makers have been actively accumulating on pullbacks, but overall sentiment remains cautious.

Last week, the market was mainly driven by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. WTI crude oil rose nearly 17% to above $100, pushing US Treasury yields higher (10Y at 4.44%) and strengthening the dollar. The crypto market fell over 6%, with the VIX rising to 31. In terms of funds, BTC and ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of about $500 million midweek, followed by a slight inflow.

Gate Institutional Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars

The recent rise of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI to 52.7 signals economic expansion, historically aligning with past crypto bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Macro investor Raoul Pal links Bitcoin's cycle to the business cycle, suggesting a five-year cycle peaking by 2026. Market views diverge between traditional Bitcoin halving-driven rallies and faster macro-driven growth. Improved liquidity and economic conditions may boost crypto, though geopolitical and regulatory risks persist.

When Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Begin? Key Timelines to Watch

U.S. lawmakers are accelerating progress on crypto regulation, putting Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP under close watch as the countdown for the US CLARITY Act begins.

US CLARITY Act Countdown Start: Will BTC, ETH, XRP Rally?

Wintermute's market-making address recorded nearly $1.9 million in profits today amid a general crypto market decline. The total holdings amount to $74.9 million, primarily consisting of a $25.6 million BTC long position and approximately $24 million short positions in ETH, HYPE, and SOL. During the downturn, the address actively absorbed BTC buy orders, placing orders within a $2,000 range around the current price, with buy orders currently exceeding sell orders.

Wintermute's market-making address recorded a profit of $1.9M today, with a total position size of $74.9M.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase between $66,000 and $68,000 after peaking in mid-March, with visibly declining trading volumes indicating a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces. Short-term support is around $66,500, and resistance is near $67,500. An effective break below support could trigger a new round of testing at the $60,000 level, while holding above could sustain the rebound.

On April 2, analyst Killa (@KillaXBT) shared a long-term logarithmic chart of Bitcoin, highlighting the "perfect halving lower bound" and upper-lower ratio, asserting that Bitcoin will definitely drop below $60,000 in the current bear market. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader with over 180K followers on X, previously predicted the bull market peak in May 2025.

Famous analyst: Bitcoin will definitely fall below $60,000 in this bear market cycle.

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