The CRUDE market is influenced by both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. In the short term, heightened tensions in the Middle East are increasing oil price volatility and driving synchronous changes in CRUDE prices. In the medium term, the weakening trend of the US dollar will to some extent support the appreciation of crude oil and its linked assets. At the same time, crypto market data indicate that CRUDE is at a bottoming stage, so it is recommended to build positions on dips as market liquidity recovers, while controlling position size, in order to benefit from potential rebounds.

- Recently, Brent crude surged nearly 2% after the US President announced a withdrawal from Tehran. Subsequently, White House discussions on potential military actions against Iran pushed WTI to as high as $75.74, after which it fell back to around $72.95 and then rebounded by another 2.5%.
- Such long-short seesawing, driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical news, has significantly amplified crude oil price fluctuations, with market risk appetite shifting rapidly in the short term.
- For CRUDE, as a crypto asset pegged to oil prices, its price volatility will closely track spot oil prices. In the short term, bullish sentiment dominates when geopolitical tailwinds occur, but any de-escalation or progress in negotiations may trigger quick pullbacks.

Brent crude oil prices rose by nearly 2% following President Donald Trump's remarks about withdrawing from Tehran.

Trump's remarks on withdrawing from Tehran pushed Brent crude oil prices up by nearly 2%.

WTI crude oil futures August contract fell by 0.6%, retreating to $72.95, after reaching $75.74 before 23:30 Beijing time. Previously, the White House announced that U.S. President Trump would decide within the next two weeks whether to attack Iran; in fact, Iran is not close to possessing weapons-grade uranium.

The WTI crude oil futures for the August contract have turned lower.

WTI crude oil rose by 2.5%, while Nasdaq futures fell by 101 points.

- US retail sales in May were generally weak, though control group data slightly exceeded expectations, causing expected rate cuts for the year to be priced in at about 48.5 basis points—implying the Fed remains cautious about economic support.
- With weak data, the dollar faces depreciation pressure, which typically helps to boost USD-denominated commodity prices, including energy assets like crude oil.
- From a medium-term perspective, should markets continue to expect an easing cycle, declining capital costs and improving liquidity will provide relatively solid value support for CRUDE.

Forexlive的分析师报道，在美国5月零售销售数据公布之前，市场对年底前联邦储备利率降息的预期为49个基点，数据公布后略微调整为48.5个基点。即将召开的FOMC会议将考虑这一零售销售数据，整体显示疲软，尽管控制组——消费者状况的关键指标略超预期。由于3月的销售额因关税担忧大幅增加，随后两个月出现下降，导致数据难以解读。

Analysis: U.S. retail sales data overall remain weak, with market pricing largely unchanged.

- According to monitoring data, only 8% of altcoins are currently showing negative momentum, indicating the overall crypto market is forming a bottom. History shows that when this ratio falls below 15%, a staged rebound often follows.
- As a commodity-linked token, CRUDE is likely to strengthen in line with major crypto assets as market liquidity and risk sentiment recover.
- It is recommended to watch volume confirmation after the bottom is established, accumulate gradually on dips, and control position sizing to seize the upcoming upward window.

Foresight News reports that according to Swissblock monitoring, the market is currently at a bottom stage. The last top-bottom signal was triggered on April 7, leading to a significant market change with BTC rising about 30% within three weeks, and major altcoins increasing between 50% and 120%. Currently, only 8% of altcoins show negative momentum, and historical data suggests that a market bottom forms when this percentage reaches 15% to 25%. A reset to 0% is expected to lead to a rebound in Ethereum and other altcoins.

Analysis: Market bottom signals appear, and the market may rebound.

CRUDE

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

Lagarde discussed various options, including the possibility of an interest rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to its highest level in nearly three years

After the release of U.S. economic data, the probability expectation of an interest rate hike slightly increased.

US Q1 GDP price index preliminary reading at 3.6%, expected 3.8%

US Q1 PCE Price Index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value 4.5%, exceeding expectations

US Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year Rises to 3.2% in March

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, with officials signaling they need more time to assess the extent of the Iran war’s jolt to the economy.

The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged as expected.

USD/CAD: BoC cautious as CAD seen choppy – TD Securities

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