Driven by 'hot money', the FROG token is currently showing a range-bound oscillation pattern in the short term, with no clear breakout signals in the market yet. Support and resistance levels are being repeatedly tested. Short-term investors are advised to monitor volume changes at key levels to capture entry and exit signals. In the long run, if FROG achieves regulatory compliance integration and develops ecosystem application scenarios, it may attract sustained capital inflows, but investors should be alert to the risk of a pullback when hot money recedes. It is recommended for investors to allocate positions in batches and keep up-to-date tracking with fundamental progress.

**Based on current market observations**, FROG's price has recently maintained range-bound oscillation, with short-term moving averages flattening and a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces, indicating that the market has not yet reached a consensus on the next direction.

**Fund flows as the driver**: Under the 'hot money' logic, the founding team and major holders often increase selling pressure or accumulate positions when market attention is high. Recently, news events have often triggered short-term premiums or discounts, resulting in significantly higher trading volume and volatility.

**Technical insights**:
- Support levels: The current bottom of the range has been repeatedly tested recently without an effective breakdown.
- Resistance levels: Several recent attempts to break short-term highs above have been blocked, making it difficult to form a confirmed breakout.

**Sentiment evaluation**: In the short term, the market is still dominated by capital games, with volatility leaning towards being driven by risk events. It is advised to pay attention to repeated testing of key zones aligned with trading volumes to seize short-term entry and exit signals.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that in every cycle, founders chase "hot money." In the previous cycle, this meant issuing tokens amid a booming crypto capital market. In the current cycle, tokens will be brought into the stock market, similar to financial companies. He estimates that this trend of chasing hot money will continue for another year or two before it cools down.

Dragonfly Managing Partner: Each cycle, founders chase "hot money," and this cycle involves bringing tokens into the stock market.

**Sustainability of hot money trends**: Taking into account the current market cycle characteristics, the logic of chasing hot money is expected to persist over the next 1–2 years, meaning the project team will drive the token into broader capital markets, bringing incremental funds to FROG.

**Value focus points**:
- Regulatory compliance: Successful regulatory integration in the traditional financial system or listing of derivatives will help boost liquidity and market depth.
- Ecosystem development: Long-term value must be supported by real use cases and network effects, rather than relying solely on market hype.

**Technical indicator references**:
- If medium- to long-term moving averages show a bullish arrangement, it will further confirm the upward trend;
- Consistently increasing trading volume would confirm gradual capital inflow.

**Risk warning**: When the hot money cycle ends, there may be a medium- to long-term correction. It is recommended to allocate positions in batches and to dynamically track developments in fundamentals.

Froggy

BoE: Holding fire with two-sided risks – Deutsche Bank

Fed: Warsh-led cuts seen limited – Rabobank

Japan's Katayama: Getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market

Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price.

Bank of Japan: High oil prices and a weak yen could keep core inflation at around 3% for two consecutive years

The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, continuing its wait-and-see approach.

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut expectations to next year, inflation pressures remain high.

The Powell era comes to an end: What has he left behind?

Reminder: Please pay special attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

US growth likely picked up in first quarter, but consumer spending probably cooled

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