Driven by the easing of macro risks and the rebound in market risk appetite, HEI continues its short-term rally, with bullish enthusiasm significantly rising and the current focus moving above $0.090. Short-term support is in the $0.085–$0.084 range; a breakdown below this level may intensify selling pressure. On the upside, $0.091–$0.092 is a key resistance area; if a breakout occurs with increased volume, there is expectation for a medium-term strengthening. Trading suggestion: closely monitor trading volume and trends of major digital assets; consider increasing allocation moderately if price holds above $0.091; if it falls below $0.085, cut losses promptly to control downside risk.

Recent advancements in geopolitical negotiations and the de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran have reduced extreme market risk premiums, spurring a revival in global risk assets. Against this backdrop, both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have risen, with capital continually flowing into Ethereum and other high-risk digital assets. In the equities market, the V-shaped rebound of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has further enhanced investors' risk appetite, leading to improved capital flows in the crypto market. As a highly-correlated high-risk contract asset, HEI has benefited from this bullish sentiment, with its price rebounding from around $0.085 to above $0.090, reflecting the positive effect of overall market style rotation.

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

The market has seen a strong V-shaped rebound with the S&P 500 up nearly 10% since March 27 and Nasdaq's longest winning streak since 2021. Optimists like Tom Lee and Ed Yardeni believe the bottom is confirmed, citing easing geopolitical risks and strong earnings growth, with AI driving productivity gains. However, skeptics like Michael Hartnett warn the market hasn't reached true capitulation, highlighting cautious investor positioning and high oil prices as risks. The debate hinges on whether this rally is a sustainable bull market or a technical rebound amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Short-term rebound or bull market return, what do traders think?

Market focus has shifted from "war escalation" to "effective risk pricing." Improved US-Iran negotiations ease extreme supply shock fears, but US sanctions keep risks "controllably suppressed." Energy prices show mixed signals: WTI's premium over Brent declines, yet tight supply and OPEC cuts maintain upward pressure. Businesses delay investments amid uncertainty, causing lagged economic effects. Markets face asymmetric pricing amid macro risk easing but unresolved structural pressures, with liquidity-driven volatility persisting, including in crypto assets like BTC.

Bitunix Analyst: Energy supply risks have shifted to a controllable state but are not yet resolved. Policy and corporate actions are beginning to show delayed responses, and the market has entered a phase of asymmetric pricing.

Tech stocks surged, driving the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record highs amid optimism over easing US-Iran tensions. The Nasdaq rose 1.59% to 24,016.02, and the S&P 500 increased 0.8% to 7,022.95. Bitcoin briefly hit $75,229, up 1.07% in 24 hours and nearly 10% over two weeks. Fundstrat's Tom Lee suggests the next rally may be led by Bitcoin, Ether, and tech stocks.

Analysis: Tech stocks rally drives US stocks to new highs, Bitcoin hits $75,000

Although overall risk appetite has increased, smaller holders have taken concentrated profits amid Ethereum's recent rally, reflecting short-term profit-taking pressure. This behavior indicates that some scattered funds doubt the sustainability of the current uptrend, preferring to realize gains at local highs. At the same time, Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates remain negative without significant improvement, and the demand for downside protection is growing in the options market, signaling that caution persists among investors regarding the outlook. While HEI moves in tandem with mainstream assets in the short term, retail profit-taking and contradictions in the derivatives market may limit its further upside.

Santiment reported that amid recent market gains, small retail investors are selling significant amounts of Ethereum, with wallets holding 0.01 ETH or less reducing by 1,791 ETH (worth $4.16 million) in two days. The public perceives the 17% rise since March 29 as a bull trap, which ironically may strengthen the likelihood of the ongoing bullish momentum continuing.

Santiment: The general market believes the recent rise is a bull trap, but the bullish momentum may continue.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

On the daily chart, HEI saw a volume-backed strong rally on April 16, with trading volume more than quadrupling from the previous two days, indicating strong bullish intervention that pushed the price above $0.090. Subsequently, volume retraced, and the short-term price faced resistance in the $0.090–$0.091 range. On the downside, $0.085 and $0.084 serve as recent dense support zones; a breach here warrants caution for a shift in sentiment. In the medium to long term, a firm breakout and hold above $0.091–$0.092 could open more upside; otherwise, the price may continue to consolidate within this range.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes states the crypto market is currently in a "no-trade zone," with his fund Maelstrom making almost no trades in Q1 due to lack of clear direction. He warns AI will disrupt white-collar jobs, causing deflationary financial collapse, while tensions in the Hormuz Strait amid US-Iran conflict are key market variables. Hayes outlines three scenarios involving war outcomes, AI impact, and shifts in global financial and energy systems.

Arthur Hayes: The crypto market is currently in a "no-trade zone," with the AI unemployment wave and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as key variables.

Heima

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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HEI price today is 0.09, with a live price change of 1.23 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade HEI on Bybit.

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