MX is currently in a low-leverage, early-stage mainstream asset rotation phase, consolidating within a box pattern, with prices remaining in the 1.77–1.81 range and balanced bullish and bearish forces. If BTC continues to strengthen and effectively breaks through key technical resistance, MX may follow the increased market activity and move up to the 1.85 catch-up zone. Strategy suggestion: Buy low and sell high within the range, watch for signs of a breakout with increased volume at 1.80–1.81; if the breakout is confirmed, actively follow the short- to medium-term upward opportunity; otherwise, maintain a range-bound approach and strictly control risk exposure.

Recently, the open interest in Bitcoin futures has significantly dropped to half its peak from last year, indicating a notable decrease in overall market leverage. Sharp fluctuations in funding costs and funding rates reflect rapid shifts in bullish and bearish sentiment. Against this backdrop, even small capital inflows can greatly impact prices in a low leverage environment. Since mid-March, MX has consolidated in the 1.77–1.81 range; trading volume has occasionally spiked but hasn't led to a sustained breakout, indicating an equilibrium in the battle between bulls and bears. In the short term, the market will likely remain in a consolidation stage after deleveraging, and traders can look for buy-the-dip opportunities near support and sell-the-rally moves near resistance.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Amid easing geopolitical risks and the interplay with the Fed's hawkish stance, global risk assets have seen a temporary rebound. The U.S. stock market—especially AI-related sectors—has led the way, with institutional capital reallocating into Bitcoin ETFs and increasing spot holdings, demonstrating confidence in the long-term allocation logic for crypto assets. In this rotational environment, once major coins lead the rally, trading attention and activity is likely to spread to small and mid-cap tokens. MX remains in its established consolidation range, but as mainstream assets continue to strengthen and overflow effects appear, it could benefit from a liquidity premium.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Daily charts show that after bottoming near 1.769, MX has tested the 1.81 area repeatedly and met resistance, forming a classic converging pattern. The key reference is the market's reaction after Bitcoin breaks critical levels—when major assets consolidate above important moving averages or volatility points, downstream assets typically gain new momentum. If BTC decisively pushes above key resistance and stays in a high-volatility zone, this could provide directional impetus for MX. Medium-term focus is on whether the daily close can break through the 1.80–1.81 resistance with volume confirmation; if so, this could open up room for a catch-up move to the 1.85 area. If it fails again, the consolidation range may persist.

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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MX price today is 1.79, with a live price change of 0.68 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade MX on Bybit.

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