Current macro retail data remains sluggish, further increasing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy path, which puts pressure on risk appetite for high-beta assets. NOBODY faces short-term downward pressure, with the technicals fluctuating around a key support level and clear bullish-bearish divergence. It is advisable to monitor upcoming retail and inflation data to assess the policy trajectory and its further impact on the market. Meanwhile, consider strategic positioning within the trading range, or wait for a clear technical breakout signal before entering to capture potential market movement opportunities.

• U.S. May retail sales declined month-on-month. The core control group exceeded expectations, but overall performance was sluggish, highlighting weak consumer support.
• Market expectations of year-end rate cuts edged down slightly from 49 basis points to 48.5 basis points, reflecting increased uncertainty over the Fed's policy path.
• Weaker-than-expected retail sales have suppressed risk appetite, making investors more cautious toward high-beta assets, including crypto.

Given these changes, the overall macro environment poses short-term downside risks to NOBODY. Continued attention to subsequent retail and inflation data is necessary to judge whether the policy pace will slow further.

Forexlive的分析师报道，在美国5月零售销售数据公布之前，市场对年底前联邦储备利率降息的预期为49个基点，数据公布后略微调整为48.5个基点。即将召开的FOMC会议将考虑这一零售销售数据，整体显示疲软，尽管控制组——消费者状况的关键指标略超预期。由于3月的销售额因关税担忧大幅增加，随后两个月出现下降，导致数据难以解读。

Analysis: U.S. retail sales data overall remain weak, with market pricing largely unchanged.

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- Price has been oscillating repeatedly near an important support level, with overall volatility narrowing, indicating intensified bullish-bearish divergence.
- Trading volume remains low, lacking enough momentum for a directional move.
- A break below the current support might accelerate testing of lower levels; conversely, if the price breaks above previous highs, a further rebound could follow.

Given the short-term bearish macro sentiment, traders may position range strategies within the current volatility band or wait for a clear directional signal before entering.

Nobody Sausage

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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