PUFF is currently in a range-bound phase driven by the recovery of the macro environment, benefiting from eased geopolitical risks and the rebound of Bitcoin. However, the upside is capped by multiple resistances at 0.0751–0.0755. The retreat in trading volume after expansion indicates weak bullish momentum, and market sentiment remains mostly on the sidelines. It is recommended to focus on the support at 0.0738 and resistance at 0.0755. Short-term operations should prioritize range trading. If a clear breakout occurs in macro indicators or mainstream coins, consider following up; otherwise, remain cautious to guard against short-term pullback risks.

With a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, market risk aversion has softened, once driving increased trading activity in crypto assets. Following this news, PUFF's intraday trading volume expanded significantly, surging to around 0.07645, but closed back at the 0.0745 level, indicating that although bulls tried to leverage the risk relief window, bears maintained strong resistance. From a technical perspective, the price high approached the intensive trading range of late March, with clear short-term resistance. Without follow-up news, a sustained rally based solely on eased geopolitical risks is difficult to achieve.

The market experienced a rapid shift from "full escalation risk" to a "two-week ceasefire window" as Iran accepted a ceasefire, easing extreme energy supply shocks marginally. However, this shift is a temporary political concession rather than an end to conflict, delaying but not resolving supply risks. Structural policy divergences are widening, with the Fed maintaining high rates amid inflation concerns and Japan's wage growth prompting tightening, leading to a "non-coordinated tightening" and heightened market uncertainty dominated by geopolitical risks and fragile energy supply chains.

Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire alleviates supply shock but does not change structural pressure, policy divergence widens, market enters a "uncertainty premium-dominated" phase.

U.S. core PCE data was basically in line with market expectations, with the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin fluctuating sideways, leading to a contraction in short-term volatility in the crypto sector. After the data release, PUFF consolidated in the 0.0743–0.0751 range, with daily trading volume normalizing and no significant trend breakout observed. This reflects investors' continued caution towards the direction of future Fed policy, awaiting clearer interest rate guidance. Technically, the price has already filled the early April downside gap. If resistance at 0.0751 is breached, a slight advantage for bulls in the short term could be confirmed; otherwise, the price may continue to fluctuate within the range.

The latest US PCE inflation data met expectations, easing market uncertainty and stabilizing Bitcoin around $73,000. Core PCE rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Despite easing US-Iran tensions, potential energy price impacts remain unreflected. Investors remain cautious about Fed rate cuts. Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlights upcoming CPI data as more critical amid oil price volatility. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintains an $80,000 Bitcoin target if key support holds.

Analysts maintain an $80K Bitcoin target as PCE inflation data boosts market sentiment.

Bitcoin surged to a four-week high, nearing a key resistance level, and the volatility effect in the derivatives market could spill over to altcoins. During Bitcoin's strong performance, PUFF also saw a minor rebound, reaching up to around 0.0747, but soon gave back most gains, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears regarding future trends. If Bitcoin stabilizes at higher levels, PUFF may see a second wave of incremental capital inflows; otherwise, if Bitcoin retraces, PUFF is likely to be dragged lower, intensifying short-term volatility. Currently, special attention should be paid to the performance at the long-term support of 0.0738 and the recent resistance at 0.0755.

Puff The Dragon

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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PUFF price today is 0.07, with a live price change of -0.11 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade PUFF on Bybit.

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