SWELL is currently driven by the recovery of macro risk appetite, sustained liquidity, and fund rotation, and thus has stage-specific upward momentum. It is recommended to closely watch for a valid breakout above 0.00121; if accompanied by volume, a short-term acceleration might be triggered. Conversely, a drop below the 0.00115-0.00117 support would intensify the correction pressure. Based on on-chain retail chip realization and institutional capital divergence, short-term market volatility is prominent. A flexible long-short trading strategy by range is advised, with strict position and stop-loss control to cope with rhythm shifts and key level risks.

Recently, the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 have risen by more than 12% and 10%, respectively, while Bitcoin hit new highs, leading to a significant improvement in risk asset sentiment. Geopolitical risks have been effectively alleviated due to improved US-Iran negotiations and the expectation of a two-week ceasefire, gradually easing market concerns over supply shocks. Against the backdrop of abundant liquidity and the search for high yields, activity in the altcoin sector has increased. SWELL, as a small-to-mid-cap asset, is likely to attract incremental buying interest in the short term and may maintain an upward consolidation pattern.

The Nasdaq 100 has surged about 12% since March 27, marking its longest winning streak since 2021, while the S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 10%. Bitcoin also hit a new high above $76,000, with on-chain data indicating bullish behavior. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and negative funding rates in crypto, markets seem to be pricing in an early end to the Iran conflict, supported by upcoming peace talks and improving regional conditions.

The Nasdaq is about to hit a new high, is the bull market back?

Market focus has shifted from "war escalation" to "effective risk pricing." Improved US-Iran negotiations ease extreme supply shock fears, but US sanctions keep risks "controllably suppressed." Energy prices show mixed signals: WTI's premium over Brent declines, yet tight supply and OPEC cuts maintain upward pressure. Businesses delay investments amid uncertainty, causing lagged economic effects. Markets face asymmetric pricing amid macro risk easing but unresolved structural pressures, with liquidity-driven volatility persisting, including in crypto assets like BTC.

Bitunix Analyst: Energy supply risks have shifted to a controllable state but are not yet resolved. Policy and corporate actions are beginning to show delayed responses, and the market has entered a phase of asymmetric pricing.

Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, market risk sentiment quickly improved, leading to a significant rebound in US stock indices, with the Dow rising over 1300 points. Fundstrat's Tom Lee stated the market has confirmed a phase bottom and is moving toward historical highs, expecting the S&P 500 to reach 7300 points this year. Investors see this as a buying opportunity amid easing geopolitical risks and falling oil prices.

US-Iran ceasefire boosts market sentiment, Tom Lee says the US stock market's interim bottom may have been confirmed.

On-chain data show that small Ethereum holders are realizing gains in a concentrated manner, partially relieving short-term profit-taking pressure. Although some in the market view this as a 'bull trap' phenomenon that could stimulate follow-up buying, the rhythm of capital flow led by whales and institutions is diverging from retail arbitrage, which may increase intraday volatility. During this period of high sentiment for SWELL, be alert to correction risks caused by short-term capital rotation, and closely monitor changes in trading volume and signals of capital divergence in trading.

Santiment reported that amid recent market gains, small retail investors are selling significant amounts of Ethereum, with wallets holding 0.01 ETH or less reducing by 1,791 ETH (worth $4.16 million) in two days. The public perceives the 17% rise since March 29 as a bull trap, which ironically may strengthen the likelihood of the ongoing bullish momentum continuing.

Santiment: The general market believes the recent rise is a bull trap, but the bullish momentum may continue.

On the daily chart, SWELL has been consolidating in the 0.00115–0.00121 range since late March, repeatedly testing the lower bound and holding support, while the upper area has seen clear selling pressure. Recently, the closing price is near 0.00119, with trading volume significantly lower than previous highs, showing a classic range-bound consolidation pattern. If the price breaks above the 0.00121 resistance with volume, a short-term surge may occur; conversely, if the 0.00117–0.00115 support range is lost, the next round of correction may be triggered. Considering increased negative gamma effects around key levels in the derivatives market, a range-based long-short trading strategy is recommended.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Swell

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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Swell Price: SWELL Live Price Today | SWELL Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit

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