Driven by the recovery of macro risk sentiment, TOSHI shows short-term bullish sentiment, coupled with the liquidity spillover effect from major assets, bringing the potential for new allocation funds to small and mid-cap tokens. On the technical side, TOSHI remains in a 0.0001740–0.0001830 consolidation range. A breakout above 0.0001830 with increasing volume will open up room for further upside, while falling below 0.0001740 risks testing 0.0001680. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume and follow the trend, focusing on buying low and selling high before a breakout.

Recently, the easing of international geopolitical tensions has led to a rebound in risk appetite, with US stocks staging a weekly rally and volatility in major assets being suppressed. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin was the first to break through the $72,000 level and temporarily decoupled from traditional stock markets, indicating a reduced reliance on safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs, showing a renewed willingness to allocate to crypto assets. Overall, improvement in macro-level risk sentiment is providing short-term upward momentum for small-cap tokens like TOSHI, with a clear bullish sentiment.

As US-Iran tensions ease, Wall Street adopts the "TACO trade" strategy—betting that Trump's tough geopolitical rhetoric will ultimately lead to compromise. Investors view conflict escalation as a buying opportunity, reflected in the S&P 500's first weekly gain in six weeks and low option risk premiums. While some see this as a highly profitable cycle, others warn that market complacency may encourage riskier policies and increase tail risks.

"TACO Trading" Dominates the Market: Investors Bet on Trump "Ultimate Pressure Will Eventually Back Down," Buying the Dip Becomes the Mainstream Strategy

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

According to SoSoValue data, peace talks between Israel and Lebanon have boosted market sentiment, leading to a broad rebound in the crypto sector. SocialFi stood out with a 3.01% rise in 24 hours, including Toncoin and Chiliz gains. Bitcoin rose 2.01% past $72,000, and Ethereum increased 0.91%, nearing $2,200. Only AI and GameFi sectors saw slight declines.

The crypto sector generally rebounded, with only the AI and GameFi sectors experiencing slight declines.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Since March 6, Ethereum has seen sustained buying, with bulls defending near the $2,000 support level. The net buying in the derivatives market has surpassed the billion-yuan mark, and the simultaneous entry into both derivatives open interest and spot ETFs highlights institutional participation. The ETH/BTC ratio has returned to a three-month high, which also means that high risk assets are getting a new wave of capital allocation. With a stable collective trend among mainstream leading assets, market liquidity is likely to spread to small and mid-cap sectors. As a high-beta asset, TOSHI may attract additional sentiment-driven funds.

Analysts report a return of buying pressure in Ethereum, with on-chain and derivatives data showing net positive aggressive buy orders since March 6, reaching $104 million recently. Maintaining the $2000 support level is crucial to reversing market structure and resuming an upward trend. Failure to hold this level could lead to new yearly lows, with secondary support between $1750-$1800 and a potential drop to $1460 if breached.

Analyst: Ethereum buy orders are returning, and holding the $2000 support level is key to reversing the market structure.

Market data shows Ethereum buyers are returning, with bulls defending the $2000 support level. Since March 6, Ethereum's aggressive buying volume has remained positive, indicating a recovery in derivatives market demand. The buying pressure dominates at $104 million, marking the first such shift in Ethereum derivatives since the last bear market. Futures open interest nears a historic high, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $120 million net inflow, the highest since mid-March.

Analysis: Ethereum's proactive order consumption has remained positive since March, signaling a recovery in the derivatives market.

On the daily chart, TOSHI has tested support multiple times in the 0.0001740–0.0001830 range without a significant breakdown, forming a short-term bottom region. On April 8, a high upper shadow candlestick indicated heightened long-short divergence, followed by a significant contraction in trading volume, suggesting increased sidelines activity. The price is currently oscillating near the upper end of the range; if it can break above 0.0001830 with strong volume, further upside will be opened. Conversely, losing 0.0001740 again calls for caution on a pullback toward 0.0001680. Overall, the current stage is mainly horizontal accumulation, and it is necessary to wait for confirmation of bullish volume.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Toshi

Federal Reserve Beige Book: War Intensifies Uncertainty, U.S. Businesses Adopt a Wait-and-See Approach

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in April reaches 98.4%.

Who is Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Federal Reserve nominee?

Musallem: Oil price shocks may push core inflation close to 3%

The Federal Reserve's Musalem: The oil shock may keep core inflation around 3%, and interest rates will remain unchanged for a while.

US economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace across most regions as the war with Iran generated a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs, the Federal Reserve said.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: The war against Iran initiated by the U.S. is seen as a major source of uncertainty, with energy costs soaring across all regions.

US Sources Issue Hot Statement: Iran-US Ceasefire Likely to Be Extended for Another Two Weeks

Fed's Goolsbee: Rate setters face "dual dangers" from the Iran war and tariffs

ECB: Volatile oil clouds rate path – ING

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Toshi Price: TOSHI Live Price Today | TOSHI Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit

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