Current market sentiment is warming up. The resonance of derivative capital inflows and high leverage has strengthened the replenishment momentum for bulls amid volatility contraction. In the short term, this is likely to catalyze a rebound for TRT at the key support zone (suggested focus on the 1.15-1.22 range). Investors may consider bottom-fishing accordingly and gradually increase positions after TRT breaks important market resistance. The short-term target can be set at the 1.40-1.45 range. However, caution should be exercised regarding delayed fundamentals, which may limit the rebound potential. It is recommended to strictly execute profit-taking strategies to mitigate the risk of high-level corrections.

The latest research report shows that although overall trading activity remains subdued after the New Year, derivative position structures feature narrowing volatility, concurrent capital inflows, and high leverage. Bitcoin and Ethereum are oscillating near dual low indicator zones (RSI around 43% and 44%; stochastic indicators approximately 30% and 23%, respectively), displaying potential for bottoming and trend reversal. In this environment, derivatives bulls may gain replenishment impetus during the low-level recovery, supporting a rebound in overall risk appetite.

As one of the indicators of market sentiment, TRT is likely to gain some short-term premium during the market rebound wave. Long covering in derivatives with high leverage, combined with a rotation toward yield-seeking market styles, may prompt a technical rebound for TRT near support levels. For the medium to long term, ongoing attention should be paid to TRT’s project progress and real-world application scenarios. Otherwise, the rebound may be limited by fundamental constraints. Traders can consider bottom-fishing after confirmation of a market breakout above key resistance, using TRT's critical support zones for strategic entries, and should set appropriate profit-taking levels to hedge against high-level pullback pressures.

TryTON

Inflation, Earnings, and Airstrikes: 3 Things That Could Impact Crypto This Week

US-Iran negotiations collapse, Bitcoin battles to defend the $70K level.

Risk-Off Sentiment Prevails; Trump Orders Naval Blockade of Strait of Hormuz

Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran collapsed over the weekend risks widening a war now entering its seventh week, spiking oil prices and raising the prospect of further economic pain around the globe.

US-Iran negotiations fail, bond market focuses on inflation and interest rate outlook

SoSo Macro | US-Iran Talks Hit Major Rifts; US Military to Blockade Hormuz Strait

US President Donald Trump’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz risks deepening an unfolding economic crisis for Asia’s energy-dependent economies, including America’s allies in the region and China.

Analysis: Liquidity may become a negative factor for Bitcoin, as the current macro structure is similar to that of 2022.

CITIC Securities: Fed expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points within the year.

Protracted Iran war narrows BOJ's rate hike options

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