FAQ — Bybit Prediction

What is Bybit Prediction?

Bybit Prediction is a feature within Bybit Alpha, powered by Polymarket. It allows you to participate in prediction markets using USDC directly from your Bybit account, without the need for an external wallet or any on-chain experience.

How does Bybit Prediction work?

Bybit Prediction is made available through a collaboration between Bybit and Polymarket. Market creation, order matching, and settlement are powered by Polymarket's infrastructure. Through this integration, users can access and trade prediction markets directly from the Bybit Prediction interface using funds from their Unified Trading Account (UTA).

Bybit is not the counterparty to any prediction market trade. It does not operate the underlying prediction markets and does not control share pricing, order matching, market resolution, or settlement. These functions are determined by Polymarket and its resolution mechanisms.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where users can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Participants can buy YES or NO shares based on their view of the outcome. If their prediction is correct, they can earn a profit.

The price of a share represents the market's implied probability of an outcome. When a market settles, each winning share is worth 1 USDC, while losing shares settle at 0 USDC.

Users may exit their positions before settlement, subject to available liquidity and prevailing market conditions. However, the ability to exit a position at a specific price, or at all, is not guaranteed.

Do I need a Polymarket account or a crypto wallet to participate?

No. You can participate in Bybit Prediction directly through your Bybit account. Bybit Alpha handles all on-chain interactions on your behalf, so you do not need a separate crypto wallet or Polymarket account.

To get started, complete Individual Identity Verification or Business Identity Verification and ensure that you have sufficient funds in your UTA.

Who is eligible to use Bybit Prediction?

Bybit Prediction is available to users who have completed Identity Verification and passed applicable AML (Anti-Money Laundering) and sanctions screening requirements.

At launch, Bybit Prediction is available in the following regions: Bolivia, Chile, Algeria, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Venezuela, Zambia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Ghana, Morocco, Costa Rica, Haiti, Belize, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Togo, Benin, Liberia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Guinea-Bissau, Namibia, Botswana, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of the Congo, and the Solomon Islands.

Bybit reserves the right to apply additional eligibility requirements, including age, residency, and enhanced due diligence requirements. Bybit also reserves the right to update the list of eligible regions and to suspend or restrict access to Bybit Prediction at any time, without prior notice, where required by applicable laws or regulatory requirements.

Users are responsible for ensuring that their use of Bybit Prediction complies with all applicable local laws and regulations.

What can I trade on Bybit Prediction?

At launch, Bybit Prediction will support markets related to the sport events. More events and markets may be added in the future.

What currency can I use?

All trades are placed and settled in USDC using your UTA balance. Any proceeds from winning shares or closed positions will be automatically credited to your UTA.

What does the share price represent?

A share's price reflects the market's implied probability of a specific outcome and ranges from 0 USDC to 1 USDC. In general, a lower share price indicates a lower implied probability but also a higher potential return if the prediction is correct.

For example, a YES share trading at 0.30 USDC indicates that the market believes there is approximately a 30% chance of the event occurring. If the event occurs and the market settles in favor of YES, each share will pay out 1 USDC, resulting in a profit of 0.70 USDC per share.

Share prices do not represent a forecast or recommendation by Bybit and may differ from the actual probability of an outcome.

How are prices determined?

Prices are driven by market supply and demand and are updated in real time based on data from Polymarket. Bybit does not set, influence, or control share prices. Orders are subject to available liquidity on Polymarket and are not guaranteed to be filled at the displayed price.

Is there a minimum or maximum order size?

The minimum order size is 5 USDC per trade. The maximum order size varies depending on the event and market type. If your order exceeds the maximum order size, an error message will be displayed.

Can I place limit orders?

No. Bybit Prediction currently supports market orders only. All orders are submitted as Fill-or-Kill (FOK) market orders. This means your order will either be filled immediately at the current market price or rejected in full. Partial fills are not supported.

Why was my order rejected?

Your order may be rejected if market prices move significantly during order submission. If the estimated execution price deviates by more than 5% from the current market price, the order will be automatically rejected.

This slippage protection helps prevent your order from being executed at a significantly less favorable price than expected. If your order is rejected, you can submit a new order based on the latest market price.

Are there any fees?

Yes. A trading fee applies to each transaction executed through Bybit Prediction and is deducted directly from the order amount when the order is executed.

The total trading fee consists of two components:

1. Polymarket fee:
2. Fee rate: The taker fee rate applies and may vary by market category. For sports markets, the fee rate is 3%
3. Formula: Number of shares × Fee rate × Price × (1 − Price)
4. This fee is collected by Polymarket and may include a builder fee charged by the platform through which the order is placed.
5. Bybit Alpha service fee:
6. Fee rate: 1%
7. Formula: Order Cost x Fee Rate

Both fees will be displayed on the trade confirmation page before your order is executed. For more information on Polymarket's base fees, please refer to the Polymarket fee schedule.

Notes:

1. Bybit Alpha covers all on-chain gas costs, so users are not charged any additional gas fees.
2. Fees are subject to change in accordance with the Bybit Terms of Service.
3. Trading fees are generally non-refundable, including where a market is later voided, cancelled, or re-settled, except as required by applicable law.

What does the timer shown on live matches represent?

The timer displays the approximate elapsed time of an ongoing match. Please note that all match information is provided for reference only and may be subject to delays, inaccuracies, or omissions. Bybit does not provide investment or trading advice, and the information displayed should not be relied upon when making trading decisions.

Why can't I place a buy order shortly before a match begins?

Buy orders may be temporarily restricted shortly before a match begins to protect users from significant price volatility around the start of the event. During this period, you can still monitor the market and sell existing positions.

Can I sell my shares before the event resolves?

Yes. You can sell your shares at any time before the event is settled to lock in profits or limit losses. The price at which you exit your position will depend on prevailing market conditions and may be higher or lower than your entry price. Your P&L is calculated as: (Exit price − Entry price) × Number of shares

Any proceeds from the sale will be credited to your UTA immediately.

How does market settlement work?

Each market on Bybit Prediction has its own rules and settlement conditions, which are displayed on the market page before you place a trade. Once an event outcome is confirmed according to the market's resolution criteria, the market will settle automatically. Resolution is determined through Polymarket's resolution mechanism and the applicable sources of truth specified for the market. At settlement, winning shares settle at 1 USDC per share, while losing shares settle at 0 USDC per share. Any settlement proceeds are automatically credited to your UTA.

Bybit and/or Polymarket reserve the right to void, cancel, resettle, or adjust a market if the resolution source is unavailable, ambiguous, or inaccurate; if the market was created in error; if manipulation, abuse, or suspicious activity is detected; or where required by applicable law. Trading fees may not be refunded in such cases.

What do the different market statuses mean?

1. Live: The market is open for trading. You can buy and sell shares, and prices fluctuate based on market activity and sentiment.
2. Market Resolving: The event has ended, and the outcome is being verified. Trading may remain available while the market is being resolved, and you may still be able to buy or sell shares during this period.
3. Settled: The final outcome has been confirmed, and the market has settled. Trading is no longer available. If you hold winning shares, settlement proceeds will be automatically credited to your UTA.

How is my payout calculated?

When an event concludes and the market is resolved, winning shares settle at 1 USDC per share, while losing shares settle at 0 USDC.

For winning positions:

1. Total payout = 1.00 USDC × Number of shares
2. P&L = (1.00 USDC − Entry price) × Number of shares

For losing positions, your shares will be worthless, and your initial investment will not be refunded.

Example

You purchase 100 NO shares at 0.40 USDC per share, for a total investment of 40 USDC.

If your prediction is correct:

1. You receive 100 USDC at settlement.
2. Your profit is 60 USDC.

If your prediction is incorrect:

1. You receive 0 USDC at settlement.
2. Your loss is 40 USDC.

Note: The above calculation is for illustrative purposes only and does not include any applicable fees incurred when buying or selling shares.

When will my payout be credited after resolution?

Winning positions are settled automatically, and settlement proceeds are typically credited to your UTA within 24 hours after the market is resolved. In some cases, crediting may be delayed due to disputes, market resettlements, scheduled or unscheduled maintenance, or additional compliance reviews.

What happens if there is a dispute about an event outcome?

If a market outcome is disputed, market resolution may be delayed while the outcome is reviewed and confirmed. During this period, the market may remain in a settling state and trading may continue. However, users should exercise caution, as the outcome remains subject to change. Any trading activity during a dispute period is undertaken at the user's own risk.

If the review results in a change to the market outcome, the market will be resettled and affected positions will be adjusted accordingly. For more information, please refer to Polymarket's dispute documentation.

What are the risks involved?

Bybit Prediction is a speculative product. As with any form of trading, participation in prediction markets involves risk. You should only use funds that you can afford to lose in full.

Some of the key risks include:

1. Total loss risk: If your prediction is incorrect, you may lose the entire amount invested in the position.
2. Market volatility risk: Share prices can fluctuate significantly in response to real-world events, breaking news, and changes in market sentiment. If market prices move against your position, you may incur a loss.
3. Liquidity risk: The ability to open or close a position depends on available liquidity in Polymarket's order book. In less liquid markets, you may experience higher slippage, unfavorable execution prices, or be unable to close your position before settlement.
4. Regulatory risk: The legal and regulatory treatment of prediction markets varies across jurisdictions and may change over time. Depending on the jurisdiction, prediction markets may be classified as gambling, betting, derivatives, securities, or other types of event-based contracts. Users are solely responsible for ensuring that their participation in Bybit Prediction complies with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction of residence and any jurisdiction from which they access Bybit Prediction. Bybit may suspend, restrict, or discontinue access to Bybit Prediction, in whole or in part, including for specific users or jurisdictions, at any time where required by applicable law or regulation, or where Bybit otherwise considers it appropriate.
5. Counterparty and platform risk: Bybit Prediction relies on Polymarket's infrastructure, smart contracts, oracle systems, and resolution mechanisms. Service disruptions, operational failures, smart contract vulnerabilities, or insolvency affecting Polymarket or its service providers may impact market availability, share value, settlement, or payouts.
6. Resolution and oracle risk: Market outcomes are determined using external sources of truth and Polymarket's resolution process. These sources may be unavailable, delayed, inaccurate, ambiguous, or subject to differing interpretations or disputes. In rare cases, a market outcome may be revised after the initial resolution.
7. Void and cancellation risk: Markets may be voided, canceled, resettled, or otherwise adjusted by Bybit and/or Polymarket in certain circumstances, including where resolution sources are unavailable or ambiguous, where a market was created in error, where manipulation or abuse is suspected, or where required by applicable laws or regulations. Trading fees may not be refunded in such cases.
8. Settlement and payout delay risk: Settlement proceeds may be delayed due to operational issues, scheduled or unscheduled maintenance, market disputes, resettlements, compliance reviews, or other circumstances required by laws or regulations.
9. Technology and cybersecurity risk: Bybit Prediction relies on internet connectivity, blockchain networks, the Bybit platform, and third-party infrastructure to operate. Technical failures, cyberattacks, network congestion, smart contract vulnerabilities, or platform outages may result in delays, losses, or inability to access or manage positions.
10. Access and compliance risk: Bybit may suspend, restrict, or terminate access to Bybit Prediction at any time for compliance, sanctions, AML, Identity Verification, regulatory, or risk management reasons, or where required by applicable law, regulatory requirements, or a court order.
11. Tax risk: Users are solely responsible for any tax obligations arising from their participation in Bybit Prediction, including any payouts received. Bybit does not provide tax advice.

Disclaimer

Bybit Prediction is a high-risk product available only to eligible Bybit users. The underlying markets, order matching, and settlement are operated by third-party providers. Bybit only provides access to prediction markets and may calculate and display your positions and related account balances for administrative purposes. Unless otherwise stated, Bybit does not act as your counterparty, broker, dealer, market maker, or fiduciary in relation to any prediction contract.

Information made available through Bybit Prediction, including market pages, share prices, and implied probabilities, is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, financial, or investment advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation by Bybit. Users are solely responsible for their own decisions.

This FAQ is provided for general information only and should not be relied upon as legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Before participating, users should carefully consider their financial situation and risk tolerance, and conduct their own research.

Bybit Prediction is subject to the Bybit Terms of Service, any applicable product-specific terms, and the Bybit Risk Disclosure Statement. In the event of any inconsistency, those documents will prevail.