3 Assets to Watch (Sept 7-11): EURUSD, Oracle and Adobe earnings
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EURUSD - world's most popular FX pair - braces for 24 hours of volatility: ECB rate decision (Thur) and US inflation report (Fri); forecasted trading range between 1.1530 - 1.1710
Oracle forecasted to move up/down 10.6% after earnings release on Thursday (after US markets close)
Adobe forecasted to move up/down 6.7% after earnings release on Thursday (after US markets close)
Also note: US markets closed Mon, Sept 7th; Apple set to release new iPhones on Wed, Sept 9th
A new week presents new trading opportunities.
Although risk assets are still smarting after last Friday's (sept 4th) blockbuster US jobs report raised market expectations for a Fed rate hike later this month - which in turn dragged down the likes of BTC, Gold, and stocks - there are still major events in the days ahead that can trigger outsized moves across major assets.
Key Events This Week:
Mon, Sept 7: US markets closed
Wed, Sept 9: Apple set to unveil new iPhones
READ MORE (published Sept 1): How might AAPL stocks perform under John Ternus - Apple's new CEO?
Thu, Sept 10 @ 12:15PM UTC: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision
Thu, Sept 10 - after US market close: Earnings announcements by Oracle and Adobe
Fri, Sept 11: US August inflation data (as measured by the consumer price index CPI)
As we do every Monday, we distill the week's major events into 3 assets to watch that could present your next trading opportunity:
1) EURUSD to see breakout?
Over the past week, EURUSD has been sandwiched between 2 closely-watched technical indicators:
100-day simple moving average (SMA)
200-day simple moving average
This week's major events could spark a breakout in EURUSD - the world's most-traded FX pair!
NOTE: Last week, options traders had built bearish EUR/USD positions (expecting a weaker Euro vs. the US dollar i.e. EURUSD declines) for 9 consecutive sessions - the longest such streak since 2017.
EURUSD is set to experience an eventful 24 hours in the latter half of the trading week:
Thursday, Sep 10: ECB Rate Decision @ 12:15 PM UTC
Markets widely expect a +25bps hike by the ECB - anything else would be a shocker!
However, it's what the ECB signals about its next move will matter more to markets.
Economists vs. Markets: Who's Right?
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect this to be the last hike - with the deposit rate staying at 2.50% through 2027.
Markets, however, are pricing roughly 3 hikes by July 2027.
That gap between economists and markets is the key tension for EUR/USD this week.
Friday, Sep 11: US consumer price index (CPI) @ 12:30 PM UTC
The consumer price index (CPI) is a popular way of measuring inflation.
Know that the US inflation report holds great influence over the Fed's next decision on its own benchmark rates.
And where markets believe US interest rates are headed - either staying at current levels / moving higher (and at what pace and duration) - can move trillions of dollars across global financial markets.
NOTES:
A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's interest rates going up relative to other countries/economies.
A currency tends to weaken at the thought of its country's interest rates going down / staying level / not moving up as fast as its peers.
At the time of writing, Bloomberg's FX model forecasts a 79% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.153 - 1.171 this week (Sept 7-11)
Potential Scenarios
UPSIDE - EURUSD should reclaim the recent cycle high around 1.1710 if:
- ECB hikes +25bps this week and signals openness to further rate hikes
- US inflation data comes in below market expectations, paring bets for a Fed rate hike later this month (US dollar weakens)
DOWNSIDE - EURUSD may break below its 100-day SMA and test support around 1.1530 if:
- ECB hikes but signals a pause in this cycle - proving economists right
- US CPI exceeds market expectations, paving the way for a Fed rate hike this month (US dollar gains; EURUSD falls)
2) Oracle forecasted to move +/- 10.6% after earnings
Oracle reports its Q1 FY2027 results on Thursday, September 10, after the US market closes.
Although its stocks are now trading around a 2-month high, they are also down ~18.5% year-to-date - one of the worst performances among large-cap tech names.
And that's despite Oracle's sales and earnings growth reportedly exploding.
Key Themes to Watch
AI infrastructure: Oracle is planning ~$70B in capex for FY2027 to build out AI data centres - watch whether that spending is converting into cloud revenue growth, and for any Stargate update.
Debt burden: Oracle carries ~$95B in debt - investors want reassurance that the AI cloud opportunity justifies the financing pressures.
Potential Scenarios
Markets predict that Oracle stocks could move up/down by 10.6% after its earnings release.
UPSIDE: Oracle could breach the $178.00 psychological level if its cloud revenue accelerates, full-year guidance is raised.
DOWNSIDE: Oracle could test support around the $144 psychological level, with its 50-day SMA also lying close by for technical support, if its cloud growth disappoints relative to AI hype, or eventual ROI fears resurface.
3) Adobe forecasted to move +/- 6.7% after earnings
Adobe reports its Q3 FY2026 results on Thursday, September 10, after the US market closes.
This software giant heads into earnings with two big storylines: a new CEO and persistent fears that generative AI is eating its core business.
Its shares are down ~23.8% year-to-date, though has been rebounding since mid-June.
Key Themes to Watch
New CEO: Just last week, Adobe announced that Anil Chakravarthy takes over at the helm starting December 1. Could this leadership change shift Adobe's focus toward enterprise workflows and away from Creative Cloud?
Guidance on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): RBC expects upside to the consensus ARR estimate of $27.47B - any lowering of such forecasts (Adobe already trimmed by ~$500M earlier this year) would be punished.
AI monetisation: AI features currently represent less than 2% of total ARR — investors want to see that number move.
Potential Scenarios
Markets predict that Adobe stocks could move up/down 6.7% after its earnings release.
UPSIDE: Adobe may retest the $286 psychological level if it delivers a positive surprise and ARR guidance is raised.
DOWNSIDE: Adobe may re-test the $250 psychological level for support on yet another ARR guidance cut or CEO transition uncertainty spooks investors.
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.