Forecasts: US jobs report (NFP) - Friday, September 4. Here's how BTC, gold, SP500 etc. may react.

• Aug US jobs report a.k.a. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) due 12:30PM UTC on Fri, Sept 4

• Monthly NFP report can move $ trillions across global financial markets

• Economists predict turnaround: 55k new jobs added last month vs. 23k jobs lost on July; unemployment rate steady at 4.1%

• Better-than-expected US jobs report may drag down cryptos, US stocks, and gold on increased odds of Fed rate hike(s)

• Scroll down to see forecasted % reactions for BTC, Gold, and 12 other major assets



The next installment of the US jobs report is due tomorrow - Friday, September 4th.



The monthly nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data out of the world's biggest economy can move trillions of dollars across global financial markets!



Why is the US jobs report so important?



1) US consumers drive US economic growth

The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.

2) US jobs report influences Fed rate decisions

The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the world's most influential central bank and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

• "Maximum employment" (jobs growth)

• "Stable prices" (inflation)

Typically, the Fed either:

• lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation, OR

• raises its benchmark interest rates to dampen jobs growth so it subdues inflation

A hot US jobs market (a lot of hiring) may also lead to inflation staying elevated.

i.e. more people with jobs --> more money that can be spent in an economy --> businesses have more ability to raise their selling prices --> inflation



Will the Fed hike US interest rates this year?



Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, at his recent Jackson Hole speech, delivered a "hawkish inflation" warning i.e. paving the way for a Fed rate hike.

Warsh stated that US price pressures have yet to meaningfully slow and that the Fed has "work to do" to return inflation to its firm 2% PCE target.

Warsh's "hawkish" warning prompted markets to now predict a 62% chance of a Fed rate hike later this month.

Those 62% odds are far higher than the 36% chance accorded to a September Fed rate hike prior to Warsh's speech last Friday, August 28th.



NFP forecasts by economists



Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

• Headline NFP number: 55,000 new jobs added in August

If so, 55k new jobs added would be a turnaround after last month's shocker = 23k jobs lost in July

• Unemployment rate: 4.1%

If so, 4.1% would match July's jobless rate.



Potential market scenarios

• Another blockbuster US jobs report that paves the way for Fed rate hikes in 2026 could drag down risk assets such as US stock indices and cryptos, while boosting the US dollar.

• If the US jobs market remains resilient, or at least not suffering an unexpected deterioration, it may bolster major risk assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30) and cryptos, while keeping the US dollar in demand.

• An unexpected rapid deterioration in US hiring that dilutes bets for Fed rate hikes in 2026 could translate into a weaker dollar, likely boosting US dollar-denominated assets e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD+) and Silver (XAGUSD), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+ etc.).



Forecasts: How might major assets react to this NFP data?



These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 12:30 PM UTC Fri, Sept 4th:

• Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 1% up / 2.8% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 1% up / 4.2% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 1% up / 3% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 1% up / 3.6% down

• Gold (XAUUSD+): as much as 1.4% up / 1.1% down

• Silver (XAGUSD): as much as 2.3% up / 2.6% down

• Brent Oil (UKOUSD): as much as 1.3% up / 1.3% down

• WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD): as much as 1.3% up / 1.3% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.4% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.3% up / 0.4% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.2% up / 0.45% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.4% up / 1.4% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1% up / 2.1% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.4% up / 1% down





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.