Driven by geopolitical events, the RAID token may benefit in the short term from heightened risk aversion and a shift in market liquidity, with an expected test of prior resistance zones (recommend monitoring the $1.35-$1.42 range). Quantitative indicators show a short-term rebound momentum has formed, although volatility risks remain significant. It is recommended to adjust positions flexibly and pay close attention to trading volume and on-chain activity. In the medium to long term, be vigilant for pullback pressure caused by waning sentiment or insufficient fundamental support.

A sudden military action has triggered sharp fluctuations in global macro-level risk appetite, with risk-aversion sentiment rising significantly in the short term. As traditional markets face heightened turbulence, crypto assets are often viewed as alternative safe-haven instruments. Some short-term capital is likely to flow out of risk assets such as stocks and bonds, and into the digital currency market, including RAID. Nevertheless, geopolitical shocks can also amplify market trading volumes and price volatility, making the balance point of short-term positions more fragile.

In a surprise early morning raid, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and flew him to the U.S. The operation, initially planned for December 29 but delayed by storms, was predicted hours before on the prediction market Polymarket by insiders who profited over $700,000. Others who bet earlier suffered losses due to the delay. This event highlights Polymarket as a tool for insiders to exploit information and timing advantages for significant gains.

They missed out on 2 million dollars because Maduro originally wasn't going to spend the New Year at home.

The latest on-chain quantitative reports indicate that the crypto market has begun to show signs of stabilization, with the tug-of-war between bulls and bears becoming increasingly clear. In recent days, RAID has repeatedly bounced back near key support levels, forming lower wicks that demonstrate ongoing tests, gradually narrowing in range. At the same time, trading volume has slightly expanded following horizontal price movement, suggesting that buying interest is accumulating. From an indicator perspective, the MACD is narrowing with a potential golden cross developing, and the RSI is rebounding from oversold territory toward neutral levels, indicating initial signs of short-term rebound momentum.

Taking into account the current risk-averse atmosphere from geopolitical events and the improving technical signals in the crypto market, RAID may experience a short-term bullish rebound. Investors should monitor profit-taking pressure near previous key resistance levels. If macro risk events escalate further, market volatility could intensify, requiring close monitoring of trading volume and candlestick patterns for changes. In the medium to long run, value drivers and project fundamentals need more substantial validation. After short-term bullish sentiment subsides, it is important to assess the sustainability of capital inflows and on-chain ecosystem activity to guard against pullback risks driven by weakened sentiment.

Raid

Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Huatai Securities: March Nonfarm Payroll Data Reflects Resilience of the US Job Market, Inflation Becomes the Core Variable in Fed Policy

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

CICC: Investment demand and prices for gold may both have room for upward correction.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

Market Edges Higher; Strong U.S. Jobs Data Complicates Rate Outlook

KPMG: The Federal Reserve is expected to be forced to raise interest rates in the second half of the year.

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